统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2015年
1期
26~32
,共null页
研发强度 周期特征 融资约束 长期经济增长
研髮彊度 週期特徵 融資約束 長期經濟增長
연발강도 주기특정 융자약속 장기경제증장
R&D Intensity; Cyclical Characteristics; Financing Constraints; Long-term Economic Growth
本文使用1998—2010年26个发达国家与16个发展中国家的面板数据,研究经济周期各阶段与长期经济增长对研发强度的影响及其机理,并选取同时期我国30个省市的面板数据进行考察。实证结果表明,发达国家研发强度呈增长型周期特征,而发展中国家研发强度呈逆周期特征;长期经济增长对发达国家研发强度有负向影响,而对发展中国家研发强度有显著正向影响。研究还发现,研发投入水平不同的国家,研发强度周期特征也存在显著差异。与其他发展中国家相同,我国研发强度逆周期变化,然而经济扩张对我国研发强度的负向影响力度更大,导致的直接后果是持续的经济波动对研发强度具有更大负效应。
本文使用1998—2010年26箇髮達國傢與16箇髮展中國傢的麵闆數據,研究經濟週期各階段與長期經濟增長對研髮彊度的影響及其機理,併選取同時期我國30箇省市的麵闆數據進行攷察。實證結果錶明,髮達國傢研髮彊度呈增長型週期特徵,而髮展中國傢研髮彊度呈逆週期特徵;長期經濟增長對髮達國傢研髮彊度有負嚮影響,而對髮展中國傢研髮彊度有顯著正嚮影響。研究還髮現,研髮投入水平不同的國傢,研髮彊度週期特徵也存在顯著差異。與其他髮展中國傢相同,我國研髮彊度逆週期變化,然而經濟擴張對我國研髮彊度的負嚮影響力度更大,導緻的直接後果是持續的經濟波動對研髮彊度具有更大負效應。
본문사용1998—2010년26개발체국가여16개발전중국가적면판수거,연구경제주기각계단여장기경제증장대연발강도적영향급기궤리,병선취동시기아국30개성시적면판수거진행고찰。실증결과표명,발체국가연발강도정증장형주기특정,이발전중국가연발강도정역주기특정;장기경제증장대발체국가연발강도유부향영향,이대발전중국가연발강도유현저정향영향。연구환발현,연발투입수평불동적국가,연발강도주기특정야존재현저차이。여기타발전중국가상동,아국연발강도역주기변화,연이경제확장대아국연발강도적부향영향력도경대,도치적직접후과시지속적경제파동대연발강도구유경대부효응。
This paper investigates the impact and its mechanism of business cycle and long-term economic growth on R&D intensity based on panel data for 26 developed countries and 16 developing countries over the period of 1998-2010, and investigates current situation of China in its transition period using annual panel data for 30 provinces & cities of china over the same period. We find that the R&D intensity of developed countries shows growth-cyclical characteristics and R&D intensity of developing countries moves counter-cyclically. Long-term economic growth has negative impact on R&D intensity of developed countries, and on the contrary, it has positive impact on developing countries. We also find that, the cyclical characteristics of R&D intensity differ significantly in countries with different R&D expenditure level. In addition, cyclical characteristics of R&D intensity of China is identical to other developing countries, except for the difference which is that economic expansion has stronger negative impact on R&D intensity of China, which leads to greater negative effect of continuing economic fluctuation on R&D intensity.