城市问题
城市問題
성시문제
Urban Problems
2015年
2期
64~71
,共null页
城镇化 能源消费 预测 因素分解模型 Logistic模型 安徽省
城鎮化 能源消費 預測 因素分解模型 Logistic模型 安徽省
성진화 능원소비 예측 인소분해모형 Logistic모형 안휘성
urbanization ; energy consumption ; prediction; factor decomposition model; Logistic model; Anhui Province
运用因素分解模型，测算了城镇化进程对能源消费的贡献份额。基于增量视角，采用曲线回归的最佳拟合优度分析方法，构造了城镇化与能源消费函数关系式。运用Logistic模型，对安徽省未来城镇化演进趋势进行了预测。依据城镇化与能源消费耦合关系及城镇化水平预测值，估算了城镇化演进对能源消费的影响前景。基于研究结果，提出了节能型城镇化的政策建议：优化产业结构；加大科技投入，降低单位产值能耗；执行产业节能政策；推进建筑及交通节能；培植公众绿色消费意识等。
運用因素分解模型，測算瞭城鎮化進程對能源消費的貢獻份額。基于增量視角，採用麯線迴歸的最佳擬閤優度分析方法，構造瞭城鎮化與能源消費函數關繫式。運用Logistic模型，對安徽省未來城鎮化縯進趨勢進行瞭預測。依據城鎮化與能源消費耦閤關繫及城鎮化水平預測值，估算瞭城鎮化縯進對能源消費的影響前景。基于研究結果，提齣瞭節能型城鎮化的政策建議：優化產業結構；加大科技投入，降低單位產值能耗；執行產業節能政策；推進建築及交通節能；培植公衆綠色消費意識等。
운용인소분해모형，측산료성진화진정대능원소비적공헌빈액。기우증량시각，채용곡선회귀적최가의합우도분석방법，구조료성진화여능원소비함수관계식。운용Logistic모형，대안휘성미래성진화연진추세진행료예측。의거성진화여능원소비우합관계급성진화수평예측치，고산료성진화연진대능원소비적영향전경。기우연구결과，제출료절능형성진화적정책건의：우화산업결구；가대과기투입，강저단위산치능모；집행산업절능정책；추진건축급교통절능；배식공음록색소비의식등。
The energy consumption proportion contributed by urbanization was calculated by using the factor decomposi- tion model. The functional relation between urbanization and energy consumption was developed by using curvilinear regression with the best goodness of fit from the incremental perspective. The trend of future urbanization of Anhui Province was predicted by using the Logistic model. The prospect of the influence of urbanization on energy consumption was estimated according to the coupling relation between urbanization and energy consumption and the predicted value of urbanization level. Based on the research results, policy recommendations were proposed on energy - saving urbanization that will benefit the ecological construction of Anhui Province, including optimizing the industrial structure, increasing investment in science and technology, decreasing the energy consumption of per unit of output, implementing the policy on industrial energy conservation, promoting energy conservation of construction and transportation, and cultivating green consumption to the public.
