CAJ | 학술논문

渭干河-库车河绿洲（渭库绿洲）在我国西北干旱区绿洲中具有一定的代表性。文章在阐述人口、经济与环境相互协调发展的机理上,建立渭库绿洲人口-经济-环境耦合协调发展指标体系,并引入耦合协调度模型对该绿洲1995-2012年人口-经济-环境耦合协调进实证分析。研究结果表明：（1）经济综合得分和人口综合得分呈上升趋势且经济综合得分增长速度远大于人口综合得分增长速度,环境综合得分则呈下降趋势。（2）1995-2007年发展类型为经济滞后型,其中仅1995年、2003年、2005年人口发展超前。2008-2009年人口效益滞后,2010-2012年环境效益滞后。（3）耦合协调度呈持续上升的趋势,低水平耦合水平转为颉颃耦合,耦合协调类型经历了由中度失调衰退类-轻度失调衰退类-濒临失调衰退类的转化历程。虽然协调度和耦合协调度都有所改善,但是耦合协调程度都较低。通过对人口-经济-环境耦合协调的研究以期为提高绿洲发展质量、协调区域经济发展与绿洲生态环境的保护提供参考。
위간하-고차하록주（위고록주）재아국서북간한구록주중구유일정적대표성。문장재천술인구、경제여배경상호협조발전적궤리상,건립위고록주인구-경제-배경우합협조발전지표체계,병인입우합협조도모형대해록주1995-2012년인구-경제-배경우합협조진실증분석。연구결과표명：（1）경제종합득분화인구종합득분정상승추세차경제종합득분증장속도원대우인구종합득분증장속도,배경종합득분칙정하강추세。（2）1995-2007년발전류형위경제체후형,기중부1995년、2003년、2005년인구발전초전。2008-2009년인구효익체후,2010-2012년배경효익체후。（3）우합협조도정지속상승적추세,저수평우합수평전위힐항우합,우합협조류형경력료유중도실조쇠퇴류-경도실조쇠퇴류-빈림실조쇠퇴류적전화역정。수연협조도화우합협조도도유소개선,단시우합협조정도도교저。통과대인구-경제-배경우합협조적연구이기위제고록주발전질량、협조구역경제발전여록주생태배경적보호제공삼고。
Ugan-Kuqa River Oasis is a typical oasis in arid areas in northwest China. This paper made an evaluation about coupling coordinated development, by applying the Coupling Coordination Model of Ugan-Kuqa River Oasis in Xinjiang. Having established an evaluation index system of population-economy-ecology, this paper formulated the Coupling Coordination Model in order to reveal the law of the population-economy-environment development. The results showed that （1） Economic comprehensive score and population comprehensive score increased, and the growth rate of economic score was far greater than the growth rate of population score, while economic comprehensive score showed a downward trend. （2） From 1995 to 2007, economic development type was a lagged type in Ugan-Kuqa River Oasis, in 1995, 2003, and 2005, the population growth was quick, from 2008 to 2009, the population benefit was in backward status from 2010 to 2012, and economic benefit was hysteretic. （3） The coupling coordination degree showed a rising trend, while the low level turned into the coupling antagonistic coupling, the coupling recession-mild recession-on the brink of recession＂. Although coordination type had experienced the process of ＂moderate the coordination degree and the coupling coordination degree were improved, the coupling coordination degree was lower; accordingly this paper had discussed the coupling coordination of population, economy and environment in order to provide reference for improving the quality of the oasis development and coordinating the development of regional economy and the protection of oasis ecological environment.