重庆大学学报：社会科学版
重慶大學學報：社會科學版
중경대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Chongqing University(Social Sciences Edition)
2015年
1期
46~50
,共null页
中期城市化 碳排放 格兰杰因果检验
中期城市化 碳排放 格蘭傑因果檢驗
중기성시화 탄배방 격란걸인과검험
medium-term urbanization; carbon emission; Granger Causality test
城市化中期是城市化率30%~70%的阶段。文章通过比较世界主发达国家与中国,发现城市化中期的年碳排放量与年人均碳排放量将继续保持上升态势。虽然各国的增长速度存在较大差异,但所有对象均不会在城市化中期出现碳排放的峰值,碳排放下降拐点的出现应在城市化后期。再通过格兰杰因果检验,证明各国在碳排放总量与城市化之间未必存在因果关系,但人均碳排放与城市化之间基本存在因果关系。
城市化中期是城市化率30%~70%的階段。文章通過比較世界主髮達國傢與中國,髮現城市化中期的年碳排放量與年人均碳排放量將繼續保持上升態勢。雖然各國的增長速度存在較大差異,但所有對象均不會在城市化中期齣現碳排放的峰值,碳排放下降枴點的齣現應在城市化後期。再通過格蘭傑因果檢驗,證明各國在碳排放總量與城市化之間未必存在因果關繫,但人均碳排放與城市化之間基本存在因果關繫。
성시화중기시성시화솔30%~70%적계단。문장통과비교세계주발체국가여중국,발현성시화중기적년탄배방량여년인균탄배방량장계속보지상승태세。수연각국적증장속도존재교대차이,단소유대상균불회재성시화중기출현탄배방적봉치,탄배방하강괴점적출현응재성시화후기。재통과격란걸인과검험,증명각국재탄배방총량여성시화지간미필존재인과관계,단인균탄배방여성시화지간기본존재인과관계。
The medium-term urbanization stage means the urbanization rate between 30% to 70%. Comparing with the world＇ s major developed countries and China during this stage, the annual carbon emissions and carbon e- missions per capita will keep rising trend, but national growth rate has huge difference. The peak of carbon emissions will not appear in stage of medium-term urbanization, but in its maturity period. The results based on Granger Causality Test show that co-relation Granger causality between urbanization rate and carbon emission may not exist in all countries, but which between carbon emissions per capita and urbanization rate exists.
