CAJ | 학술논문

文章从世界各国城市化发展的规律及发展模式出发，通过对38个国家和地区1976—2011年城市化与人均GDP、工业和服务业的理论和实证研究后认为，中国与世界平均城市化水平的差距为4～11个百分点。中国与世界城市化水平有一定的差距，但差距没有想象的那么大。中国城市化与人均GDP的回归曲线离日本和德国的最近，中国最有可能采用日本和德国的城市化发展模式，在很长的一段时间内中国的城市化率只能发展到76％的水平。工业仍然和城市化一起在中国经济增长中发挥着重要作用，但服务业占GDP的比重仍将逐步提高，服务业在经济增长中将越来越重要，提高服务业与工业的相对劳动生产率是今后中国经济发展的必然选择。决策者应该根据城市化发展阶段和居民收入水平制定城市化的发展政策。
문장종세계각국성시화발전적규률급발전모식출발，통과대38개국가화지구1976—2011년성시화여인균GDP、공업화복무업적이론화실증연구후인위，중국여세계평균성시화수평적차거위4～11개백분점。중국여세계성시화수평유일정적차거，단차거몰유상상적나요대。중국성시화여인균GDP적회귀곡선리일본화덕국적최근，중국최유가능채용일본화덕국적성시화발전모식，재흔장적일단시간내중국적성시화솔지능발전도76％적수평。공업잉연화성시화일기재중국경제증장중발휘착중요작용，단복무업점GDP적비중잉장축보제고，복무업재경제증장중장월래월중요，제고복무업여공업적상대노동생산솔시금후중국경제발전적필연선택。결책자응해근거성시화발전계단화거민수입수평제정성시화적발전정책。
Based on theoretical and empirical studies of the relationship between urbanization and per capita GDP, and in- dustrial sector and service sector in 38 countries and regions during the period of 1976-2011, this paper analyzes China＇s urbani- zation and industrial and service sector, and suggests that China＇s difference in urbanization with world average level is from 4% - 11%. China＇s difference in urbanization with world average level is not so large as some scholars claimed. The regression curve of China＇s urbanization on per capita GDP is nearest to that of Japan and Germany; during a long period China＇s urbanization may only reach to 76% ; industrial sector, along with urbanization, will maintain crucial roles in economic growth, while the signifi- cance of service sector will rise in economic growth and its share in GDP will expand. Improving labor productivity of services with respect to industry is the inevitable choice of China＇s future economic development. And decision-makers should develop pol- icies based on urbanization development stage and the people＇s income level.