CAJ | 학술논문

实现对外经贸发展水平的进一步提升，是北京市调整经济结构、转变经济发展方式的战略方向。利用1986-2012年北京市出口需求与消费、投资需求的相关数据，通过VAR模型探讨了出口需求变化与内需变化之间的因果关系，在此基础上，建立了实证模型估算其影响效应。结果表明：北京市出口需求变化影响内需增长，主要表现为出口需求的变化影响居民最终消费需求，出口需求每增加1％，居民最终消费支出水平提高0．0298％；另外，汇率、对外开放政策对于北京市内需的扩大有积极正向的影响。最后，文章探索了调整出口需求和扩大内需的有效方式，为北京市加快转变经济发展方式、实现经济结构战略性调整提供了政策建议。。
실현대외경무발전수평적진일보제승，시북경시조정경제결구、전변경제발전방식적전략방향。이용1986-2012년북경시출구수구여소비、투자수구적상관수거，통과VAR모형탐토료출구수구변화여내수변화지간적인과관계，재차기출상，건립료실증모형고산기영향효응。결과표명：북경시출구수구변화영향내수증장，주요표현위출구수구적변화영향거민최종소비수구，출구수구매증가1％，거민최종소비지출수평제고0．0298％；령외，회솔、대외개방정책대우북경시내수적확대유적겁정향적영향。최후，문장탐색료조정출구수구화확대내수적유효방식，위북경시가쾌전변경제발전방식、실현경제결구전략성조정제공료정책건의。。
To enhance the level of foreign trade is an effective way and strategic direction as to Beijing＇s adjustment of eco- nomic structure and transformation of economic developing mode. Based on the related data from 1986 to 2012, this paper estab- lished a VAR Model to discover the causal relationship between the changes in export demands and domestic demands in Beijing. Following the above study, another empirical model was established to quantify their impacts. The results showed that： the change of export demands affected the domestic demands growth, especially on residential consumption demands. Each 1% increase in export volume led to a O. 029 8% increase in residential consumption expenditures; exchange rate and the open-door policy had positive effects on enhancing domestic demands. This paper also aimed to explore the effective way of enhancing domestic demand- sand adjusting the structure of export demands. Eventually, this paper proposed some practical advice to accelerate the transfor- mation of Beijing economic developing mode as well as to achieve the strategic economic restructuring.