CAJ | 학술논문

理论上终身生育率是衡量妇女生育水平的理想指标，但由于时滞问题而难以运用；实践中采用的总和生育率用不同年龄妇女生育率加总进行替代，虽然简便易行，却存在一定偏差。与现有的利用总和生育率推算终身生育率的研究有别，本文尝试利用真实育龄妇女队列的初育年龄测度终身生育率。依据1950—2011年育龄妇女的年龄别生育率数据，发现初育年龄与终身生育率之间具有显著的负相关关系并且具有较好的拟合效果。这表明，应用初育年龄可以及时提供妇女终身生育率的可靠信患。
이론상종신생육솔시형량부녀생육수평적이상지표，단유우시체문제이난이운용；실천중채용적총화생육솔용불동년령부녀생육솔가총진행체대，수연간편역행，각존재일정편차。여현유적이용총화생육솔추산종신생육솔적연구유별，본문상시이용진실육령부녀대렬적초육년령측도종신생육솔。의거1950—2011년육령부녀적년령별생육솔수거，발현초육년령여종신생육솔지간구유현저적부상관관계병차구유교호적의합효과。저표명，응용초육년령가이급시제공부녀종신생육솔적가고신환。
The completed fertility rate （CFR）is the ideal indicator measuring fertility level, but difficult to use due to time lag. The measurement of total fertility rate （TFR） commonly used is substituting fertility rates of women at different age in a year for the total fertility rate of a woman in whole life, though easy to collect, but may be biased. There have been several attempts to estimate CFR based on TFR statistics. As an alternative, this paper tries to measure CFR based on the mean childbearing age at first birth （MAC 1 ）, using the data of the age specific fertility rate for the 1950-2011 time period. The conclusion is that CFR and MAC1 have significant negative relationship, and the simulated values of CFR measured by MAC1 are fitting with the true values well. It means, this approach may provide reliable information of real fertility lev- el directly without time lag.