CAJ | 학술논문

为研究人口结构变动对粗离婚率持续攀升的影响，本文基于2005年和2010年北京市的离婚登记数据，分解了人口年龄、性别结构和年龄别离婚率变动对粗离婚率攀升的贡献率。研究发现：2010年北京市粗离婚率较之2005年上升了0．23个千分点，其中，人口年龄结构变动对粗离婚率上升的贡献率为31％，男性和女性年龄结构变动的贡献率分别为24％和7％；年龄别离婚率变动对粗离婚率上升的贡献率为69％，男性和女性年龄别离婚率变动的贡献率分别为38％和31％。这表明男性在婚姻中处于强势地位，而女性处于弱势地位。此外，通过编制婚姻预期生命表显示，2010年平均婚姻预期寿命比2005年下降了0．7年，女性的平均婚姻预期寿命较男性长，但减少的幅度在增加。
위연구인구결구변동대조리혼솔지속반승적영향，본문기우2005년화2010년북경시적리혼등기수거，분해료인구년령、성별결구화년령별리혼솔변동대조리혼솔반승적공헌솔。연구발현：2010년북경시조리혼솔교지2005년상승료0．23개천분점，기중，인구년령결구변동대조리혼솔상승적공헌솔위31％，남성화녀성년령결구변동적공헌솔분별위24％화7％；년령별리혼솔변동대조리혼솔상승적공헌솔위69％，남성화녀성년령별리혼솔변동적공헌솔분별위38％화31％。저표명남성재혼인중처우강세지위，이녀성처우약세지위。차외，통과편제혼인예기생명표현시，2010년평균혼인예기수명비2005년하강료0．7년，녀성적평균혼인예기수명교남성장，단감소적폭도재증가。
To study the effects of population structure changes on the growth of crude divorce rate, based on the divorce registration data of Beijing in 2005 and 2010, this paper decomposes the crude divorce rate by age, sex and age-specific divorce rate. All results are as follows, the crude divorce rate in 2010 increased by 0.23 thousand points compared to 2005, of which changes in age structure of population raised crude di- vorce rate by 31 percent, men and women age-related changes account of 24% and 7% respectively; of which changes in age-specific divorce rate raised crude divorce rate by 69%, men and women age-specific divorce rate changes account of 38% and 31% respectively. These results suggest that women are at a disad- vantageous position in marriage compared with men. In addition, life expectancy tables of marriage shows that the average life span of a marriage in 2010 is 0.7 years shorter than in 2005 ,women＇ s average life span of a marriage is longer than men, but is decreased acceleratedly over the past five years.