CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用自主构建的中国单区域能源-环境-经济内生技术模型研究了气候政策背景下CCS技术的成本演化, 技术发展潜力以及减排贡献等问题. 通过研究发现：经验学习是影响CCS技术成本变化最为关键的因素, 与风能、核能等新能源技术相比, CCS技术不具有长期的成本优势, 燃料成本的上升是造成这一结果的主因. 另外, 尽管CO2的资源化利用收益能在一定程度上冲抵部分使用成本, 但这种冲抵效果也只有在燃料成本相对稳定的情况下才能凸显; CO2资源化利用对CCS技术扩散的促进作用受到资源化利用的CO2量的显著影响, 补贴政策的引入能够促使CO2资源化利用对CCS技术发展的激励作用更早地发挥.
본문이용자주구건적중국단구역능원-배경-경제내생기술모형연구료기후정책배경하CCS기술적성본연화, 기술발전잠력이급감배공헌등문제. 통과연구발현： 경험학습시영향CCS기술성본변화최위관건적인소, 여풍능、 핵능등신능원기술상비, CCS기술불구유장기적성본우세, 연료성본적상승시조성저일결과적주인. 령외, 진관CO2적자원화이용수익능재일정정도상충저부분사용성본, 단저충충저효과야지유재연료성본상대은정적정황하재능철현; CO2자원화이용대CCS기술확산적촉진작용수도자원화이용적CO2량적현저영향, 보첩정책적인입능구촉사CO2자원화이용대CCS기술발전적격려작용경조지발휘.
In this paper, we explore the cost evolution and technological diffusion of CCS in the policy context by building an economy-environmental endogenous technological model. We find that CCS is difficult to get its long-term cost advantage, as compared to wind and nuclear, and the increasing of fuel cost should be responsible for this; Resource usage of CO2 could hedge against the use cost of CCS to some extent, while only the fuel cost is relatively stable, would this hedge effect be significant; The effect of CO2 resource usage on the penetration of CCS heavily depends on the CO2 amount used as resource, the introduction of subsidy policy will significantly improve this effect and promote CCS diffuse earlier.