企业经济
企業經濟
기업경제
Enterprise Economy
2015年
2期
162~165
,共null页
灰色预测 居民生活用电 电力消费 开拓策略
灰色預測 居民生活用電 電力消費 開拓策略
회색예측 거민생활용전 전력소비 개탁책략
grey forecasting; household electricity; electricity consumption; development strategies
用电量的科学预测对配电商生产规模的调整及营销决策具有重要意义。传统的预测方法在收敛速度、预测精度以及适用性上均有不同程度的局限。鉴于居民生活用电消费影响因素较多,还存在随机因素,因此选择灰色模型对其进行预测。在分析淮安市居民生活用电消费市场现状及影响因素的基础上,根据2007—2013年淮安市居民生活用电量数据,基于灰色预测模型对淮安市居民生活用电消费进行预测,并对预测结果进行检验和分析。最后,提出了淮安市居民消费用电市场的开拓策略。
用電量的科學預測對配電商生產規模的調整及營銷決策具有重要意義。傳統的預測方法在收斂速度、預測精度以及適用性上均有不同程度的跼限。鑒于居民生活用電消費影響因素較多,還存在隨機因素,因此選擇灰色模型對其進行預測。在分析淮安市居民生活用電消費市場現狀及影響因素的基礎上,根據2007—2013年淮安市居民生活用電量數據,基于灰色預測模型對淮安市居民生活用電消費進行預測,併對預測結果進行檢驗和分析。最後,提齣瞭淮安市居民消費用電市場的開拓策略。
용전량적과학예측대배전상생산규모적조정급영소결책구유중요의의。전통적예측방법재수렴속도、예측정도이급괄용성상균유불동정도적국한。감우거민생활용전소비영향인소교다,환존재수궤인소,인차선택회색모형대기진행예측。재분석회안시거민생활용전소비시장현상급영향인소적기출상,근거2007—2013년회안시거민생활용전량수거,기우회색예측모형대회안시거민생활용전소비진행예측,병대예측결과진행검험화분석。최후,제출료회안시거민소비용전시장적개탁책략。
It is important to forecast scientifically the electricity consumption for power distributors to adjust production scope and make decisions. Traditional forecasting methods have their limits in convergence speed, prediction accuracy and applicability. Since household electricity consumption has many influence factors including random factor, grey forecasting model is selected in the paper. On the basis of analysis of present situation and influence factors of household electricity consumption in Huai' an, according to the datum of household electricity consumption in Huai' an from 2007 to 2013, the paper applies grey model to forecast the household consumption in Huai' an, examines and analyzes the results. In the end, development strategies are proposed for the household electricity consumption market in Huai' an.