经济学家
經濟學傢
경제학가
Economist
2015年
3期
65~73
,共null页
贴现 递减贴现率 不确定性 气候变化 成本收益分析
貼現 遞減貼現率 不確定性 氣候變化 成本收益分析
첩현 체감첩현솔 불학정성 기후변화 성본수익분석
Discount;Decreasing discount rate;Uncertainty;Climate changes;Cost-returns analysis
经典的成本收益分析方法采用拉姆齐公式决定贴现率，但这一研究范式只适用于确定增长条件。在不确定条件下，经济学家根据期望净现值方法和延伸的拉姆齐规则推导出递减的贴现率期限结构，并将其应用于减缓气候变化的成本收益分析。相比传统的市场利率，采用递减贴现率大大提高了气候损失和碳的社会成本，从而更倾向于早期减排。对长期性资源与环境项目，例如减缓和适应气候变化、环境污染治理，采用递减贴现率进行成本收益评估更符合可持续发展的内涵和要求。
經典的成本收益分析方法採用拉姆齊公式決定貼現率，但這一研究範式隻適用于確定增長條件。在不確定條件下，經濟學傢根據期望淨現值方法和延伸的拉姆齊規則推導齣遞減的貼現率期限結構，併將其應用于減緩氣候變化的成本收益分析。相比傳統的市場利率，採用遞減貼現率大大提高瞭氣候損失和碳的社會成本，從而更傾嚮于早期減排。對長期性資源與環境項目，例如減緩和適應氣候變化、環境汙染治理，採用遞減貼現率進行成本收益評估更符閤可持續髮展的內涵和要求。
경전적성본수익분석방법채용랍모제공식결정첩현솔，단저일연구범식지괄용우학정증장조건。재불학정조건하，경제학가근거기망정현치방법화연신적랍모제규칙추도출체감적첩현솔기한결구，병장기응용우감완기후변화적성본수익분석。상비전통적시장리솔，채용체감첩현솔대대제고료기후손실화탄적사회성본，종이경경향우조기감배。대장기성자원여배경항목，례여감완화괄응기후변화、배경오염치리，채용체감첩현솔진행성본수익평고경부합가지속발전적내함화요구。
Classical cost-returns analysis method adopts Ramsey Formula to determine discount rate, but that research paradigm only applies to certain growth condition. Under uncertain conditions, economists derivate the term structure of decreasing discount rate according to expected net present value method and extended Ramsey Rule, and apply it to the analysis on cost and returns to mitigate climate changes. Compared with traditional market rates, decreasing discount rate improves climate loss and social cost of carbon greatly, and it tends to decrease emission at the early stage. As for the long-term resource and environment project, such as mitigating and adapting to climate changes and environment pollution governance, adopting decreasing discount rate to evaluate cost and returns would better meet the connotation and requirement of consistent development.
