CAJ | 학술논문

不确定性是新产品开发（NPD）中模糊前端（FFE）阶段最重要、最突出的特征，降低不确定性对NPD成功有重要作用。本文在论述了FFE及其不确定性内涵的基础上，重点对三个经典FFE不确定性模型进行了系统分析，归纳总结经典模型之间内在的逻辑关系。在此基础上探索并提出了基于开放式创新理论的FFE不确定性知识共享模型，对该模型的突出特点、关联因素及其相互关系进行了分析，并进一步结合案例分析对新模型的有效性进行了初步评价，为企业有效应用新模型来降低FFE不确定性、提高NPD绩效提供了新思路。
불학정성시신산품개발（NPD）중모호전단（FFE）계단최중요、최돌출적특정，강저불학정성대NPD성공유중요작용。본문재논술료FFE급기불학정성내함적기출상，중점대삼개경전FFE불학정성모형진행료계통분석，귀납총결경전모형지간내재적라집관계。재차기출상탐색병제출료기우개방식창신이론적FFE불학정성지식공향모형，대해모형적돌출특점、관련인소급기상호관계진행료분석，병진일보결합안례분석대신모형적유효성진행료초보평개，위기업유효응용신모형래강저FFE불학정성、제고NPD적효제공료신사로。
Uncertainty is the most important and prominent feature in the fuzzy front end （FFE） phase of new product development （bIPD） , reducing uncertainty plays an important role for the success of NPD. On the basis of literature reviews about the meaning of FFE and uncertainty, this paper focuses on the systematical analysis on three classic FFE uncertainty models, and then summarizes the internal logic relationship among the classical models. On this basis, we develop FFE uncertainty knowledge sharing model from the perspective of open innovation, and then define and analyze the contextual factors and their relationship of the new model. The validity of a preliminary evaluation of the new model is provided by the analysis of typical cases, and the new implications to reduce the FFE uncertainty and improve the NPD performance are provided for enterprises.