CAJ | 학술논문

2013年，我国商品进出口贸易总额首次突破4万亿美元，成为全球最大贸易国。然而，随着人口年龄结构的改变，我国劳动年龄人口增长速度减缓，“人口红利”正在消失。本文综合考虑了劳动生产率，单位劳动成本等因素，通过对我国城镇单位就业人员实际平均工资进行描述性统计，并与27个O ECD主要国家2002年至2012年平均工资数据做比较分析，报告了我国劳动力成本比较优势的现状，及其对我国对外贸易的影响。为了更直观地分析劳动力成本上涨对我国对外贸易的影响，作者引入可比净出口指数、他国单位劳动成本与我国单位劳动成本差额两项指标，对其进行相关性检验。通过分析，得出目前劳动力成本上涨对我国出口整体比较优势影响有限的结论，并在此基础上提出实现我国对外贸易健康、可持续发展的建议。
2013년，아국상품진출구무역총액수차돌파4만억미원，성위전구최대무역국。연이，수착인구년령결구적개변，아국노동년령인구증장속도감완，“인구홍리”정재소실。본문종합고필료노동생산솔，단위노동성본등인소，통과대아국성진단위취업인원실제평균공자진행묘술성통계，병여27개O ECD주요국가2002년지2012년평균공자수거주비교분석，보고료아국노동력성본비교우세적현상，급기대아국대외무역적영향。위료경직관지분석노동력성본상창대아국대외무역적영향，작자인입가비정출구지수、타국단위노동성본여아국단위노동성본차액량항지표，대기진행상관성검험。통과분석，득출목전노동력성본상창대아국출구정체비교우세영향유한적결론，병재차기출상제출실현아국대외무역건강、가지속발전적건의。
In 2013 ,the total volume of China＇s import and export trade has passed four trillion dollars for the first time ,becoming the world＇s biggest trading country .As the age structure of the population changes ,however ,the increase of China＇s laboring population slows down and the so‐called “demo‐graphic dividend”is disappearing .The present paper takes multiple factors into consideration such as la‐bor productivity and labor cost per unit to conduct a descriptive statistic of China＇s urban employment average salary ,to comparatively analyzs the data of the average salary among 27 main OECD countries from 2002 to 2012 ,to report on the comparative advantages of China＇s labor cost and its impact upon China＇s foreign trade .To analyze the effect of labor cost increase upon foreign trade ,correlation test is validated through the NTB index and the margin of unit labor costs between China and other countries . Through such analysis ,the paper concludes that the rising labor costs have limited effects on the com‐parative advantage of China＇s export trade and proposes a more healthy ,more sustained development strategy for China＇s foreign trade .