CAJ | 학술논문

本文根据1982—2013年度数据，运用VAR协整模型对我国服务贸易和货物贸易的总量和差额关系进行了实证分析。通过总量分析发现，长期来看，我国服务贸易和货物贸易总量之间存在协整关系；而脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果显示：在短期，由于货物贸易对服务的引致需求，促使服务贸易增长较快，而我国服务贸易对货物贸易的拉动作用比较弱；对我国服务贸易和货物贸易差额的分析显示二者之间并无替代关系。因此，当前要发挥我国在服务贸易方面的后发优势，提高服务贸易的准入度，提升我国服务业的水平，从而促进我国服务出口，改变其逆差不断扩大的现状。
본문근거1982—2013년도수거，운용VAR협정모형대아국복무무역화화물무역적총량화차액관계진행료실증분석。통과총량분석발현，장기래간，아국복무무역화화물무역총량지간존재협정관계；이맥충향응함수화방차분해결과현시：재단기，유우화물무역대복무적인치수구，촉사복무무역증장교쾌，이아국복무무역대화물무역적랍동작용비교약；대아국복무무역화화물무역차액적분석현시이자지간병무체대관계。인차，당전요발휘아국재복무무역방면적후발우세，제고복무무역적준입도，제승아국복무업적수평，종이촉진아국복무출구，개변기역차불단확대적현상。
Using the VAR eointegration model, this paper reviews the total amounts and balance correlation between services trade and goods trade during the period of 1982 to 2013 in China. The total amounts analysis shows that, in the long run, there is a cointegration relationship between China＇ s services trade and goods trade;the impulse re- sponse function and variance decomposition results show that, in the short term, the service trade is growing fast for the induced demand for service caused by the increasing goods trade, but the development of service trade has a weak effect on the promotion of goods trade. The balance analysis of services and goods trade shows that the substi- tution relationship doesn＇ t exist in goods and services trade. Therefore, for China, an urgent matter at the moment is to realize the coordinated development of trade in services and goods and to improve service trade level by taking late dominant advantage of China＇ s trade in services.