CAJ | 학술논문

传统的汇率决定理论有着令人信服的理论基础，实际预测效果却并不能让人满意。现有的汇率决定理论也不能完全满足这两大目标。本文从马克思主义劳动价值论出发，基于弱式有效市场假说，借助组合数学的思想方法，以外汇市场的参与者的信息条件为中心，建立起多重回归一随机游走模型，对汇率决定理论做了一些探讨。最后本文认为传统汇率决定理论中的存量观点，本质上是劳动价值论中的价值观点的体现；流量观点则是劳动价值论中的交换价值的观点。模型中存在着数学期望意义下和依时间序列收敛的两种均衡汇率，前者代表价值，后者代表交换价值体现为价格。价格围绕价值上下波动，是劳动价值论的体现。马克思主义劳动价值论是汇率决定理论的坚实基础，马克思主义汇率决定理论是科学的汇率决定理论。本文同样指出带有约束条件的ARFIMA模型可以作为本文理论模型的计量经济学模型，在实证分析中可以使用分数协整理论。
전통적회솔결정이론유착령인신복적이론기출，실제예측효과각병불능양인만의。현유적회솔결정이론야불능완전만족저량대목표。본문종마극사주의노동개치론출발，기우약식유효시장가설，차조조합수학적사상방법，이외회시장적삼여자적신식조건위중심，건립기다중회귀일수궤유주모형，대회솔결정이론주료일사탐토。최후본문인위전통회솔결정이론중적존량관점，본질상시노동개치론중적개치관점적체현；류량관점칙시노동개치론중적교환개치적관점。모형중존재착수학기망의의하화의시간서렬수렴적량충균형회솔，전자대표개치，후자대표교환개치체현위개격。개격위요개치상하파동，시노동개치론적체현。마극사주의노동개치론시회솔결정이론적견실기출，마극사주의회솔결정이론시과학적회솔결정이론。본문동양지출대유약속조건적ARFIMA모형가이작위본문이론모형적계량경제학모형，재실증분석중가이사용분수협정이론。
The traditional exchange rate theory has a convincing theoretical basis and practical prediction effect is not satisfactory. The current exchange rate theory can not fully meet these two objectives. This departure from the Marxist labor theory of value, based on weak form efficient market hypothesis, with the combination of mathematical thinking in order to exchange information on conditions of market participants as the center, set up multiple regression - random walk model of exchange determination to do some research. Finally, the decision that the traditional theory of the stock exchange views, in essence, is the labor theory of value reflected in the value of the point of view; flow view is that the exchange value of the labor theory of value point of view. Mod- el, there is the sense of mathematical expectation, and the convergence of two time series according to the equi- librium exchange rate, the former representative of value, the latter representing the exchange value embodied in the price, the price fluctuates around the value, is the embodiment of Labor. Marxist labor theory of value is a sohd foundation for exchange rate theory, Marxist theory of exchange rate determination, exchange rate theory is seientitic.