CAJ | 학술논문

为了分析气候风险对农产品供应链的收益影响,构建基于蛛网理论的回扣订货模型,该模型涉及提前期、气候温度、订购量3个参数,有效解决了气候风险对农产品供应链的影响。通过CVaR风险度量方法,给出了批发商在回扣模型中的最优订货决策。通过数值算例分析了供应链成员的收益变化。结果表明,考虑气候风险的回扣模型发挥了利润传递作用,有效降低农产品市场售价,扩大市场需求,削弱销售不确定性,提升了整个农产品供应链的盈利能力。
위료분석기후풍험대농산품공응련적수익영향,구건기우주망이론적회구정화모형,해모형섭급제전기、기후온도、정구량3개삼수,유효해결료기후풍험대농산품공응련적영향。통과CVaR풍험도량방법,급출료비발상재회구모형중적최우정화결책。통과수치산례분석료공응련성원적수익변화。결과표명,고필기후풍험적회구모형발휘료리윤전체작용,유효강저농산품시장수개,확대시장수구,삭약소수불학정성,제승료정개농산품공응련적영리능력。
In order to analyze the impact of weather risk on agricultural supply chain, a rebate model based on cobweb theory has been built first. And it involves three parameters like lead time, weather temperature and order quantity. This model effectively controls weather risk on agricultural supply chain. Then, by the method of risk measurement CVaR, optimal ordering strategy for wholesales is figured out. Finally, with a numerical example, it analyzes profit of supply chain members. It is shown that rebate model can play a role of profit transfer, and help to reduce the market price, increase market sales, even weaken agricultural product＇ sales uncertainty. All these contribute to the profitability of agricultural supply chain.