CAJ | 학술논문

纵观城镇化的发展过程及经验,城镇化与经济发展之间关系密切。城镇化是推动中国未来经济增长的新动力,对于推进社会全要素生产率也有着积极的作用。由于政府公共支出对社会经济的重要影响不容忽视,在通过城镇化推进社会全要素生产率的进程中,政府公共支出政策究竟扮演着“援助之手”还是“攫取之手”的角色,将直接影响到对城镇化对经济增长的实际效应。本文基于2005-2012年的省级面板数据,利用DEA-Malmauist非参数分析方法,以地区年均劳动投入和资本存量作为投入指标,年社会总产值作为产出指标,人均GDP、产业结构、以及人口结构作为控制变量,实证研究了城镇化对全要素生产率的增长效应以及公共支出政策在此过程中的作用机制。研究发现：第一单独考虑城镇化时,城镇化对全要素生产率增长的影响并不显著,即单纯强调人口转移的城镇化率对提高全要素生产率的影响效应并不显著,而公共支出规模对社会全要素生产率存在显著的负向效应,公共支出结构对全要素生产率影响不显著;第二,单纯扩大政府干预规模并不利于提高全要素生产率,而仅从结构配置上看,提高投资性领域公共支出对于提高全要素生产率影响更加显著;第三,公共支出结构的变化对发挥城镇化对全要素生产率的积极效应影响显著,在实施城镇化进程中配套以完善的公共服务体系,提高社会福利性支出,帮助转移人口更好地进行自身教育资本和健康资本的积累,是全要素生产率增长的基础根源。因此,城镇化并不单纯只是人口从农业部分向非农业部门的转移,新一轮城镇化应该强调“以人为本”,尤其是在新型城镇化进程中通过配套系统的、针对转移人口的公共福利体系,增强城乡地区间的公共福利均等化水平,减少政府对市场机制的非正常干预,才能够有效促进社会全要素生产率的持续增长。縱觀城鎮化的髮展過程及經驗,城鎮化與經濟髮展之間關繫密切。城鎮化是推動中國未來經濟增長的新動力,對于推進社會全要素生產率也有著積極的作用。由于政府公共支齣對社會經濟的重要影響不容忽視,在通過城鎮化推進社會全要素生產率的進程中,政府公共支齣政策究竟扮縯著“援助之手”還是“攫取之手”的角色,將直接影響到對城鎮化對經濟增長的實際效應。本文基于2005-2012年的省級麵闆數據,利用DEA-Malmauist非參數分析方法,以地區年均勞動投入和資本存量作為投入指標,年社會總產值作為產齣指標,人均GDP、產業結構、以及人口結構作為控製變量,實證研究瞭城鎮化對全要素生產率的增長效應以及公共支齣政策在此過程中的作用機製。研究髮現：第一單獨攷慮城鎮化時,城鎮化對全要素生產率增長的影響併不顯著,即單純彊調人口轉移的城鎮化率對提高全要素生產率的影響效應併不顯著,而公共支齣規模對社會全要素生產率存在顯著的負嚮效應,公共支齣結構對全要素生產率影響不顯著;第二,單純擴大政府榦預規模併不利于提高全要素生產率,而僅從結構配置上看,提高投資性領域公共支齣對于提高全要素生產率影響更加顯著;第三,公共支齣結構的變化對髮揮城鎮化對全要素生產率的積極效應影響顯著,在實施城鎮化進程中配套以完善的公共服務體繫,提高社會福利性支齣,幫助轉移人口更好地進行自身教育資本和健康資本的積纍,是全要素生產率增長的基礎根源。因此,城鎮化併不單純隻是人口從農業部分嚮非農業部門的轉移,新一輪城鎮化應該彊調“以人為本”,尤其是在新型城鎮化進程中通過配套繫統的、針對轉移人口的公共福利體繫,增彊城鄉地區間的公共福利均等化水平,減少政府對市場機製的非正常榦預,纔能夠有效促進社會全要素生產率的持續增長。
종관성진화적발전과정급경험,성진화여경제발전지간관계밀절。성진화시추동중국미래경제증장적신동력,대우추진사회전요소생산솔야유착적겁적작용。유우정부공공지출대사회경제적중요영향불용홀시,재통과성진화추진사회전요소생산솔적진정중,정부공공지출정책구경분연착“원조지수”환시“확취지수”적각색,장직접영향도대성진화대경제증장적실제효응。본문기우2005-2012년적성급면판수거,이용DEA-Malmauist비삼수분석방법,이지구년균노동투입화자본존량작위투입지표,년사회총산치작위산출지표,인균GDP、산업결구、이급인구결구작위공제변량,실증연구료성진화대전요소생산솔적증장효응이급공공지출정책재차과정중적작용궤제。연구발현：제일단독고필성진화시,성진화대전요소생산솔증장적영향병불현저,즉단순강조인구전이적성진화솔대제고전요소생산솔적영향효응병불현저,이공공지출규모대사회전요소생산솔존재현저적부향효응,공공지출결구대전요소생산솔영향불현저;제이,단순확대정부간예규모병불리우제고전요소생산솔,이부종결구배치상간,제고투자성영역공공지출대우제고전요소생산솔영향경가현저;제삼,공공지출결구적변화대발휘성진화대전요소생산솔적적겁효응영향현저,재실시성진화진정중배투이완선적공공복무체계,제고사회복리성지출,방조전이인구경호지진행자신교육자본화건강자본적적루,시전요소생산솔증장적기출근원。인차,성진화병불단순지시인구종농업부분향비농업부문적전이,신일륜성진화응해강조“이인위본”,우기시재신형성진화진정중통과배투계통적、침대전이인구적공공복리체계,증강성향지구간적공공복리균등화수평,감소정부대시장궤제적비정상간예,재능구유효촉진사회전요소생산솔적지속증장。
Throughout the development process of the urbanization, there is a close relation between urbanization and economy. Urbanization is a new force to promote China＇ s economic growth. Because of government public expenditure＇ s important influence to the social economy, in the process of promoting social TFP through urbanization, the role that public expenditure policy actually plays will directly affect the actual effect of urbanization on economic growth. Based on provincial panel data from 2005 to 2012, the article uses DEA-Malmquist to analyze the influence of urbanization on the growth of TFP and mechanism of public spending policies in the process, while taking regional annual average labor input and capital as input indicators and social output value as output indicators, per capita GDP, industrial structure, and population structure as control variable. The study found that： Firstly, when urbanization considered separately, the impact of urbanization on TFP growth is not significant. It means that the laying emphasis on the population transfer of urbanization rate to improve the total factor productivity is not significant, while there are significant negative effects between the public expenditure scale and social total factor productivity and no significant effect on total factor productivity of public expenditure structure. Secondly, it is not conducive to improve the total factor productivity just by expanding the scale of government intervention. Considered from structural configuration, increasing public spending in the investment field for the improvement of total factor productivity effect more significantly. Thirdly, the changes of public expenditure structure to exert the positive effects of urbanization to the total factor productivity effect are significant. In the process the of the urbanization, the basis of the total factor productivity growth is perfecting the public service system, improving the expenditure of social welfare , helping floating population accumulate their own education capital and health capital. Therefore, urbanization is not simply just a part of the population shifting from agricultural to nonagricultural sector, the ＇people-oriented＇ should be stressed in the new round of urbanization. It will effectively promote the sustained growth of social TFP, through building public welfare system for population, supporting systems in new urbanization process, for the public welfare system transfer of population, enhancing public welfare equalization between urban and rural areas and reducing government＇ s abnormal intervention in market mechanisms.