中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2015年
3期
99~103
,共null页
资源环境 脱钩测度 速度脱钩 数量脱钩 管控
資源環境 脫鉤測度 速度脫鉤 數量脫鉤 管控
자원배경 탈구측도 속도탈구 수량탈구 관공
resource environment; decouplingmeasure ; speed decoupling; quantity decoupling; control
促进资源环境与经济增长的协调发展是我国经济社会发展进程中7待解决的重大问题。正确认识资源环境与经济增长的关系是促进二者协调发展的前提和关键,脱钩作为描述资源环境与经济增长关系的重要理论及方法,仍然存在脱钩概念模糊、脱钩测度方法不统一的问题,影响了其应用效果。对此,本文首先在总结现有脱钩测度方法的基础上,将其分为“速度脱钩”和“数量脱钩”两类,其中“速度脱钩”是指同一时期内资源环境消耗速度慢于经济增长速度;“数量脱钩”是指资源环境消耗数量（或水平）随经济增长出现平稳或下降;然后,借助“环境高山”分析了脱钩测度的管控意义,指出脱钩测度不仅仅是为了回答“脱钩与否”,更重要的是告诉我们资源环境与经济增长是否已经实现从“两难”到“双赢”的转变,我们是否该变资源环境的“适度管控”为“严格管控”;并以脱钩测度的管控意义为标尺,从理论上分析了“速度脱钩”和“数量脱钩”的优劣;最后,以我国的城市土地扩张与经济增长为例,选择Tanio弹性系数法和Kuznet、曲线模型分别代表“速度脱钩”和“数量脱钩”,对理论分析结果进行了验证,结果表明“速度脱钩”可能会提前误判资源环境与经济增长已经进入“双赢区间”,误导我们提前实施“严格管控”,从而对区域经济增长产生不良影响,而“数量脱钩”能够更准确的反映资源环境与经济增长从“两难”到“双赢”的转化,有效指导资源环境管控策略的选择。因此,为了更好地将脱钩理论及方法应用于资源环境管控实践,以“数量脱钩”作为脱钩测度方法是更合理的选择。
促進資源環境與經濟增長的協調髮展是我國經濟社會髮展進程中7待解決的重大問題。正確認識資源環境與經濟增長的關繫是促進二者協調髮展的前提和關鍵,脫鉤作為描述資源環境與經濟增長關繫的重要理論及方法,仍然存在脫鉤概唸模糊、脫鉤測度方法不統一的問題,影響瞭其應用效果。對此,本文首先在總結現有脫鉤測度方法的基礎上,將其分為“速度脫鉤”和“數量脫鉤”兩類,其中“速度脫鉤”是指同一時期內資源環境消耗速度慢于經濟增長速度;“數量脫鉤”是指資源環境消耗數量（或水平）隨經濟增長齣現平穩或下降;然後,藉助“環境高山”分析瞭脫鉤測度的管控意義,指齣脫鉤測度不僅僅是為瞭迴答“脫鉤與否”,更重要的是告訴我們資源環境與經濟增長是否已經實現從“兩難”到“雙贏”的轉變,我們是否該變資源環境的“適度管控”為“嚴格管控”;併以脫鉤測度的管控意義為標呎,從理論上分析瞭“速度脫鉤”和“數量脫鉤”的優劣;最後,以我國的城市土地擴張與經濟增長為例,選擇Tanio彈性繫數法和Kuznet、麯線模型分彆代錶“速度脫鉤”和“數量脫鉤”,對理論分析結果進行瞭驗證,結果錶明“速度脫鉤”可能會提前誤判資源環境與經濟增長已經進入“雙贏區間”,誤導我們提前實施“嚴格管控”,從而對區域經濟增長產生不良影響,而“數量脫鉤”能夠更準確的反映資源環境與經濟增長從“兩難”到“雙贏”的轉化,有效指導資源環境管控策略的選擇。因此,為瞭更好地將脫鉤理論及方法應用于資源環境管控實踐,以“數量脫鉤”作為脫鉤測度方法是更閤理的選擇。
촉진자원배경여경제증장적협조발전시아국경제사회발전진정중7대해결적중대문제。정학인식자원배경여경제증장적관계시촉진이자협조발전적전제화관건,탈구작위묘술자원배경여경제증장관계적중요이론급방법,잉연존재탈구개념모호、탈구측도방법불통일적문제,영향료기응용효과。대차,본문수선재총결현유탈구측도방법적기출상,장기분위“속도탈구”화“수량탈구”량류,기중“속도탈구”시지동일시기내자원배경소모속도만우경제증장속도;“수량탈구”시지자원배경소모수량（혹수평）수경제증장출현평은혹하강;연후,차조“배경고산”분석료탈구측도적관공의의,지출탈구측도불부부시위료회답“탈구여부”,경중요적시고소아문자원배경여경제증장시부이경실현종“량난”도“쌍영”적전변,아문시부해변자원배경적“괄도관공”위“엄격관공”;병이탈구측도적관공의의위표척,종이론상분석료“속도탈구”화“수량탈구”적우렬;최후,이아국적성시토지확장여경제증장위례,선택Tanio탄성계수법화Kuznet、곡선모형분별대표“속도탈구”화“수량탈구”,대이론분석결과진행료험증,결과표명“속도탈구”가능회제전오판자원배경여경제증장이경진입“쌍영구간”,오도아문제전실시“엄격관공”,종이대구역경제증장산생불량영향,이“수량탈구”능구경준학적반영자원배경여경제증장종“량난”도“쌍영”적전화,유효지도자원배경관공책략적선택。인차,위료경호지장탈구이론급방법응용우자원배경관공실천,이“수량탈구”작위탈구측도방법시경합리적선택。
To promote the harmonious development of resource environment and economic growth is a major issue to be resolved. The premise to realize it is to adequately recognize the relationship between them. As a vital approach to describe the relationship between them, the decoupling theory still has some problems such as vague definition and different measuring methods which influence its application effect. Thus, this paper firstly classifies decoupling methods into ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ and ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ on the basis of summarizing existing methods. Therein-to, ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ means that the speed of resource environment consumption is slower than that of economic growth during the same period ; ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ refers to that the amount （ or level） of resource environment consumption appears stable or falling along with economic growth. Secondly, in virtue of ＇ Environment Mountain＇ , this paper puts forward the control meaning of decoupling measure that is not only to indicate ＇ decouple or not＇ , but also to reveal whether resource environment and economic growth have changed from ＇ dilemma＇ to ＇ double wins＇ , whether turned the ＇ moderate control＇ of resource environment to ＇ stringent control＇. And using the control meaning of the decoupling measure as an benchmark, the advantages and disadvantages of ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ and ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ are analyzed theoretically. Lastly, this paper verifies the results of theoretical analysis using the urban land expansion and economic growth in China as an example, and choosing Tapio Elasticity Coefficient and Kuznets Curve model representing ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ and ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ respectively. The results show that ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ may misjudge the turning points from ＇ dilemma＇ to ＇ double wins＇ and misleads us to implement ＇ stringent control＇ in advance which will impact negatively regional economic growth, ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ can exhibit the turning point exactly and directs the choice of control strategy efficaciously. Hence, in order to improve the practical meaning of the decoupling theory, using ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ as decoupling measure method is a more reasonable choice.
