CAJ | 학술논문

本文建立了一个包含异质性家庭、企业、零售商、商业银行、中央银行等多部门的动态随机一般均衡模型。模型中企业以房地产抵押向银行借贷，普通家庭通过银行借款提前消费房地产，将房地产市场与银行体系引入模型，两者构成模型中经济波动传导的主体。我们模拟了各种冲击（包括房地产偏好、存款准备金率、通胀等）对宏观经济变量的动态影响，模拟的一些结果和现实中国经济反应非常一致。模拟结果表明：房地产需求的增加会在一定程度上引发经济衰退，影响经济最重要的变量是央行的存款准备金率和通胀冲击，银行体系将外生冲击分散传导，导致经济主体在冲击下形成其不同经济表现，在我国，银行体系是我国经济波动不可忽视的传导途径。
본문건립료일개포함이질성가정、기업、령수상、상업은행、중앙은행등다부문적동태수궤일반균형모형。모형중기업이방지산저압향은행차대，보통가정통과은행차관제전소비방지산，장방지산시장여은행체계인입모형，량자구성모형중경제파동전도적주체。아문모의료각충충격（포괄방지산편호、존관준비금솔、통창등）대굉관경제변량적동태영향，모의적일사결과화현실중국경제반응비상일치。모의결과표명：방지산수구적증가회재일정정도상인발경제쇠퇴，영향경제최중요적변량시앙행적존관준비금솔화통창충격，은행체계장외생충격분산전도，도치경제주체재충격하형성기불동경제표현，재아국，은행체계시아국경제파동불가홀시적전도도경。
This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of multi - departmentcontains a heterogeneous family, enterprise, retailers, commercial bank, etc. The borrowing behaviors of enterprises and borrowing households make the economic impacts on enterprise production and even the entire supply field by corporate borrowing behavior. Through the influences on consumption savings by household borrowing, important subject of transmission of economic fluctuation is composed of real estate market and banking system. Accordingly, the model portrays a variety of shocks （including the preference of real estate） on dynamic impacts of macroeconomic variables. The results of the model show that the increase in real estate demand to some extent will bring economic recession, The impact of monetary policy through the banking system to economic fluctuations, different expression form the main body of the real estate market, the bank to business, personalfinance, in China, the bank system China＇s economic fluctuation is the subject of transmission can not be ignored.