教育与经济
教育與經濟
교육여경제
Education & Economy
2015年
1期
3~9
,共null页
教育投入 宏观经济增长 联动机制 非线性MS（M）-VAR（p）模型
教育投入 宏觀經濟增長 聯動機製 非線性MS（M）-VAR（p）模型
교육투입 굉관경제증장 련동궤제 비선성MS（M）-VAR（p）모형
Educational Investment; Macroeconomic growth; Linkage Mechanism; Nonlinear MS（M）-VAR（p）Model
本文基于改革开放以来我国国家财政预算内教育经费以及GDP年度数据,运用非线性MS（M）-VAR（p）模型,对我国教育投入与宏观经济增长之间的内在联动机制进行测度。结果表明：（1）教育投入增长率在较低水平时波动性较小、持续性较大,在较高水平时波动性较大、持续性较小。（2）宏观经济处于＂低速＂或＂快速增长＂态势时波动性较大,持续性较小;处于＂中速增长＂阶段时,波动性较小、持续性较大。（3）前期的GDP增长率对当期的教育投入增长率具有正向影响,前期的教育投入增长率对当期的GDP增长率具有负向影响。（4）＂教育与经济＂系统处于＂低速＂或＂中速增长区制＂时,可能性更大、持续性更强,教育投入增长率与GDP增长率之间负相关;处于＂快速增长区制＂时,可能性最小、持续性最弱,教育投入增长率与GDP增长率之间正相关。
本文基于改革開放以來我國國傢財政預算內教育經費以及GDP年度數據,運用非線性MS（M）-VAR（p）模型,對我國教育投入與宏觀經濟增長之間的內在聯動機製進行測度。結果錶明：（1）教育投入增長率在較低水平時波動性較小、持續性較大,在較高水平時波動性較大、持續性較小。（2）宏觀經濟處于＂低速＂或＂快速增長＂態勢時波動性較大,持續性較小;處于＂中速增長＂階段時,波動性較小、持續性較大。（3）前期的GDP增長率對噹期的教育投入增長率具有正嚮影響,前期的教育投入增長率對噹期的GDP增長率具有負嚮影響。（4）＂教育與經濟＂繫統處于＂低速＂或＂中速增長區製＂時,可能性更大、持續性更彊,教育投入增長率與GDP增長率之間負相關;處于＂快速增長區製＂時,可能性最小、持續性最弱,教育投入增長率與GDP增長率之間正相關。
본문기우개혁개방이래아국국가재정예산내교육경비이급GDP년도수거,운용비선성MS（M）-VAR（p）모형,대아국교육투입여굉관경제증장지간적내재련동궤제진행측도。결과표명：（1）교육투입증장솔재교저수평시파동성교소、지속성교대,재교고수평시파동성교대、지속성교소。（2）굉관경제처우＂저속＂혹＂쾌속증장＂태세시파동성교대,지속성교소;처우＂중속증장＂계단시,파동성교소、지속성교대。（3）전기적GDP증장솔대당기적교육투입증장솔구유정향영향,전기적교육투입증장솔대당기적GDP증장솔구유부향영향。（4）＂교육여경제＂계통처우＂저속＂혹＂중속증장구제＂시,가능성경대、지속성경강,교육투입증장솔여GDP증장솔지간부상관;처우＂쾌속증장구제＂시,가능성최소、지속성최약,교육투입증장솔여GDP증장솔지간정상관。
This article is based on national financial education expenditure budget and the annual GDP data since the reform and opening up, using the nonlinear MS（M）-VAR（p）model to analyze the linkage mechanism of the China＇s education investment and macroeconomic growth. The conclusions indicate that：（1） when growth rate of education investment is in a low level, it has a smaller volatility and a greater persistence; when growth rate of education investment is in a high level, it hasa greater volatility and a smaller persistence.（2） When the macroeconomic presented slow or rapid growth, it showsa greater volatility andsmaller persistence; when the macroeconomic is in the＂moderate growth＂stage, it shows a smaller volatilityandgreater persistence.（3） The prophase GDP growth rate has a significant positive effect on current education investment; but the growth rate of prophase education investment has a significant negative effect on current GDP growth rate.（4） When the＂Education and economic＂system is in the＂slow growth phase＂or＂moderate growth phase＂, it has greater possibility and more stronger sustainable, while educational investment growth rate and GDP growth rate has a negative correlation; when＂Education and economic＂system is in the＂fast growth phase＂, it has the smallest possibility and the weakest continuity, while educational investment growth rate and GDP growth rate has a positive correlation.
