CAJ | 학술논문

2008年全球金融危机中，以美国为代表的西方发达国家实施了大规模的量化宽松货币政策。这些政策促进了发达国家，的经济复苏．同时也对其他国家特别是发展中国家产生了较强的溢出效应。本文选取2008年7月至2013年11月的月度数据，以美联储的基础货币与购债规模为自变量．以金砖五国的经济产出、物价水平、进出口贸易、汇率、资本市场波动、货币供应量为因变量，采用面板向量自回归（PVAR）的技术方法．研究了以美国为代表的发达国家的量化宽松货币政策对金砖五国的溢出效应。结论显示．美国的量化宽松货币政策对金砖国家的影响效果持续而稳定，尤其在短期内会导致金砖国家的实体经济产出上升、促使金砖国家的货币升值，并推动金砖国家的虚拟经济繁荣。基于此．本文提出了增强汇率弹性、减少对出口贸易的依赖、加强经济合作以及控制物价的非正常波动等政策建议。本文的相关研究有助于帮助发展中国家充分了解发达国家量化宽松货币政策的影响．以应对金融危机与发达国家实施宽松货币政策的双重挑战。
2008년전구금융위궤중，이미국위대표적서방발체국가실시료대규모적양화관송화폐정책。저사정책촉진료발체국가，적경제복소．동시야대기타국가특별시발전중국가산생료교강적일출효응。본문선취2008년7월지2013년11월적월도수거，이미련저적기출화폐여구채규모위자변량．이금전오국적경제산출、물개수평、진출구무역、회솔、자본시장파동、화폐공응량위인변량，채용면판향량자회귀（PVAR）적기술방법．연구료이미국위대표적발체국가적양화관송화폐정책대금전오국적일출효응。결론현시．미국적양화관송화폐정책대금전국가적영향효과지속이은정，우기재단기내회도치금전국가적실체경제산출상승、촉사금전국가적화폐승치，병추동금전국가적허의경제번영。기우차．본문제출료증강회솔탄성、감소대출구무역적의뢰、가강경제합작이급공제물개적비정상파동등정책건의。본문적상관연구유조우방조발전중국가충분료해발체국가양화관송화폐정책적영향．이응대금융위궤여발체국가실시관송화폐정책적쌍중도전。
This paper selects the Fed＇s monetary base and the scale of the purchase of bonds as independent variables, BRICS economic output, the price level, import and export, exchange rates, capital market volatility and money supply as the dependent variables. The paper uses monthly data from July 2008 to November 2013, studying the spillover effects of the American quantitative easing policies on BRICS with Panel-VAR Model. The results indicate that the QE policies affect BRICS constantly and stably, especially leading to the increase of output of real economy, contributing to the appreciation of currency, and promoting the prosperity of virtual economy. Finally, the paper proposes some economic policies such as en- hancing exchange rate flexibility, reducing dependence on export, strengthening economic cooperation, controlling abnormal fluctuations on price and so on based on the above analysis.