CAJ | 학술논문

本文从扩展三元悖论的视角。对中国与印度在三元悖论中的政策组合进行系统的实证研究与比较分析。结果表明，中国的汇率稳定指数在政策组合中最显著，而印度则往三元的中间区域发展。在此基础上．本文进一步从汇率稳定性与汇率制度改革成效两个视角分析印度汇率制度改革，认为印度汇率制度改革对中国的启示在于．印度在资本项目开放与汇率制度改革的先后顺序安排、汇率弹性与稳定性的管理、外汇储备规模的控制以及平衡汇率稳定性与资本账户开放等方面．
본문종확전삼원패론적시각。대중국여인도재삼원패론중적정책조합진행계통적실증연구여비교분석。결과표명，중국적회솔은정지수재정책조합중최현저，이인도칙왕삼원적중간구역발전。재차기출상．본문진일보종회솔은정성여회솔제도개혁성효량개시각분석인도회솔제도개혁，인위인도회솔제도개혁대중국적계시재우．인도재자본항목개방여회솔제도개혁적선후순서안배、회솔탄성여은정성적관리、외회저비규모적공제이급평형회솔은정성여자본장호개방등방면．
From the perspective of extended financial trilemma, this paper carries on a quantitative analysis of trilemma policy choices and compares the trade-off confronted by China and India. The results of the empirical study show that China＇ s trilemma configuration is different from India＇ s. The former features the predominance of exchange rate stability, while the latter concentrates on the intermediate area among the objectives in the trilemma, which means to attain considerable level of capital account liberalization with the exchange rate stability mitigated by considerable foreign exchange reserves. Based on the study above, the paper discusses the effectiveness of India＇s exchange rate system reform. It seems that the experiences and lessons of India＇s reform in deciding the order of financial integration and the arrangement of exchange rate system, managing the stability and elasticity of exchange rate, controlling the size of foreign exchange reserves and balancing the weight of exchange rate stability and capital account liberalization, is of great significance for China＇s exchange rate arrangement.