北京体育大学学报
北京體育大學學報
북경체육대학학보
Journal of Beijing University of Physical Education
2015年
1期
114~119
,共null页
世界杯 足球赛 控球率 胜负关系
世界杯 足毬賽 控毬率 勝負關繫
세계배 족구새 공구솔 성부관계
FIFA World Cup; soccer game; possession rate; competition result
当前足球比赛控球率与比赛胜负关系尚未被证实,为了探讨足球比赛球队控球率与比赛胜负的相关性,运用专家访谈法、软件分析法和数理分析法对2014届世界杯足球赛各支球队控球率与比赛胜负、进球数、射门次数和射正次数的相关性进行统计分析,结果表明控球率除了对射门次数有显著相关性外,对其它比赛胜负关系指标均没有相关性;理论上分析控球率通过射门次数可以影响进球数,从而达到与比赛胜负的相关性,但是需要处理好球队打法、运动员的射门能力和球星的个人能力这些因素;效率足球风格超越了桑巴足球风格成为世界发展的主流。建议不要盲目追求高控球率,通过提高球队的进攻效果和稳固的防守来增加比赛获胜的几率;中前场控球率与进球数成正相关,要加强中前场球的控制。
噹前足毬比賽控毬率與比賽勝負關繫尚未被證實,為瞭探討足毬比賽毬隊控毬率與比賽勝負的相關性,運用專傢訪談法、軟件分析法和數理分析法對2014屆世界杯足毬賽各支毬隊控毬率與比賽勝負、進毬數、射門次數和射正次數的相關性進行統計分析,結果錶明控毬率除瞭對射門次數有顯著相關性外,對其它比賽勝負關繫指標均沒有相關性;理論上分析控毬率通過射門次數可以影響進毬數,從而達到與比賽勝負的相關性,但是需要處理好毬隊打法、運動員的射門能力和毬星的箇人能力這些因素;效率足毬風格超越瞭桑巴足毬風格成為世界髮展的主流。建議不要盲目追求高控毬率,通過提高毬隊的進攻效果和穩固的防守來增加比賽穫勝的幾率;中前場控毬率與進毬數成正相關,要加彊中前場毬的控製。
당전족구비새공구솔여비새성부관계상미피증실,위료탐토족구비새구대공구솔여비새성부적상관성,운용전가방담법、연건분석법화수리분석법대2014계세계배족구새각지구대공구솔여비새성부、진구수、사문차수화사정차수적상관성진행통계분석,결과표명공구솔제료대사문차수유현저상관성외,대기타비새성부관계지표균몰유상관성;이론상분석공구솔통과사문차수가이영향진구수,종이체도여비새성부적상관성,단시수요처리호구대타법、운동원적사문능력화구성적개인능력저사인소;효솔족구풍격초월료상파족구풍격성위세계발전적주류。건의불요맹목추구고공구솔,통과제고구대적진공효과화은고적방수래증가비새획성적궤솔;중전장공구솔여진구수성정상관,요가강중전장구적공제。
The correlation between possession rate and competition result has not yet been confirmed in present soccer competition.This paper analyzed all teams 'possession rate,competition result,goal number,shooting number,and shots on goal in 2014 FIFA World Cup by the methods of expert interview,software analysis and mathematical analysis to discuss the correlation.The results showed that there is no correlation between possession rate and competition result except with shooting number.Theoretically,possession rate can impact goal number by shooting number,then have some kind of correlation to competition result,but play style,athlete's shooting ability and star player's personal ability are needed to deal with.Utilitarian style of soccer has replaced the samba style of soccer into mainstream of world soccer.We recommend that do not pursue high possession rate blindly,but pay more attention to improve offense and defense efficiencies,and control the up and center field because the possession rate of it has positive correlation to goal number.