CAJ | 학술논문

研究国家经济安全风险是国家战略需要,度量风险可为风险决策和防范提供可靠数据,但现有研究,还缺乏一套行之有效或付诸实践的国家经济安全风险度量方法。鉴于此,在前人研究的基础上,建立了国家经济安全风险度量指标体系,并用故障树和信息熵方法度量国家经济安全风险。利用故障树方法,合理地分解了国家经济安全所涉及的领域,利用信息熵方法,解决了风险度量中各个部分权重分配问题。并通过1985-2011年国家外债统计年鉴数据实证分析了该方法的合理性和有效性。
연구국가경제안전풍험시국가전략수요,도량풍험가위풍험결책화방범제공가고수거,단현유연구,환결핍일투행지유효혹부제실천적국가경제안전풍험도량방법。감우차,재전인연구적기출상,건립료국가경제안전풍험도량지표체계,병용고장수화신식적방법도량국가경제안전풍험。이용고장수방법,합리지분해료국가경제안전소섭급적영역,이용신식적방법,해결료풍험도량중각개부분권중분배문제。병통과1985-2011년국가외채통계년감수거실증분석료해방법적합이성화유효성。
There is need to study national economic safety risk for national strategy. Risk measurement can provide reliable data for risk decision-making and prevention. However, there is still lack of methodology which can effectively measure national economic security risk in current researches. In view of this, on the basis of existing studies, this paper proposes a risk measurement index system of national economic security and makes use of fault tree and information entropy to measure national economic safety risk. Fault tree is used to reasonably decompose the parts which national economic security risk involves. Information entropy is used to solve the allocation of weight among the risk factors. The paper also verifies the rationality and availability through case analysis based on statistical yearbook of China external debts（1985-2011）.