生态经济
生態經濟
생태경제
Ecological Economy
2015年
4期
47~50
,共null页
人均CO2排放水平 GINI系数 差异分解 Shapley Value方法
人均CO2排放水平 GINI繫數 差異分解 Shapley Value方法
인균CO2배방수평 GINI계수 차이분해 Shapley Value방법
per capita carbon emissions; GINI coefficient; disparities decomposition; Shapley Value method
根据2000-2011年中国省际面板数据,以GINI系数为衡量指标,测算了人均CO2排放水平的地区差异,分析了人均CO2排放水平随时间的演变趋势,在此基础上采用基于回归的Shapley Value分解方法,对中国人均CO2排放水平地区差异形成原因进行了考察,探究各影响因素对差异程度的影响水平,从而为有效缩小地区差异和制定CO2减排政策提供有益的参考。结果表明:人均能源消费量因素的影响程度最大,平均贡献率为72.80%,各省份的经济发展水平和产业结构是人均CO2排放水平省际差异的第二大贡献因素,其平均贡献率依次为8.01%与10.20%,且在不同的时间段其结果有所不同。排在第四位和第五位的因素分别是城镇化水平和对外开放水平,二者都是影响人均CO2排放水平省际差异的重要因素,平均贡献率分别达到5.17%与3.81%。
根據2000-2011年中國省際麵闆數據,以GINI繫數為衡量指標,測算瞭人均CO2排放水平的地區差異,分析瞭人均CO2排放水平隨時間的縯變趨勢,在此基礎上採用基于迴歸的Shapley Value分解方法,對中國人均CO2排放水平地區差異形成原因進行瞭攷察,探究各影響因素對差異程度的影響水平,從而為有效縮小地區差異和製定CO2減排政策提供有益的參攷。結果錶明:人均能源消費量因素的影響程度最大,平均貢獻率為72.80%,各省份的經濟髮展水平和產業結構是人均CO2排放水平省際差異的第二大貢獻因素,其平均貢獻率依次為8.01%與10.20%,且在不同的時間段其結果有所不同。排在第四位和第五位的因素分彆是城鎮化水平和對外開放水平,二者都是影響人均CO2排放水平省際差異的重要因素,平均貢獻率分彆達到5.17%與3.81%。
근거2000-2011년중국성제면판수거,이GINI계수위형량지표,측산료인균CO2배방수평적지구차이,분석료인균CO2배방수평수시간적연변추세,재차기출상채용기우회귀적Shapley Value분해방법,대중국인균CO2배방수평지구차이형성원인진행료고찰,탐구각영향인소대차이정도적영향수평,종이위유효축소지구차이화제정CO2감배정책제공유익적삼고。결과표명:인균능원소비량인소적영향정도최대,평균공헌솔위72.80%,각성빈적경제발전수평화산업결구시인균CO2배방수평성제차이적제이대공헌인소,기평균공헌솔의차위8.01%여10.20%,차재불동적시간단기결과유소불동。배재제사위화제오위적인소분별시성진화수평화대외개방수평,이자도시영향인균CO2배방수평성제차이적중요인소,평균공헌솔분별체도5.17%여3.81%。
We measured regional disparities of per capita carbon emissions in China based on the GINI co-efficiency and analyzed the time evolution trend of per capita carbon emission levels using provincial panel data in China from 2000 to 2011. On the basis of regression Shapley Value decomposition method, we identified the regional disparities cause of per carbon emission levels and studied the effect of the various factors on regional disparities, which can provide the beneficial reference for reducing effectively regional disparities and developing CO2 emission reduction policies. The results show that per capita energy consumption was the most important affecting factor, which contributes the average rate of 72.80%. In addition, the economic development and industrial structure was the second largest contributor to regional disparities of per carbon emission levels, and contributed an average rate of 8.01% and 10.20% respectively which were different in difference periods. The urbanization and openness were also important reasons for the provincial differences and the average contribution rate accounted for 5.17% and 3.81%.