CAJ | 학술논문

四川地区作为长江上游生态屏障的主体,其生态安全关系着长江流域乃至全国的生态安全。应用生态足迹与生态承载力的理论和计算方法,对四川省2006-2012年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行估算,在此基础上应用灰色数列模型GM（1,1）对2013-2016年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行预算,并应用净生态足迹和生态压力指数对其生态安全程度进行评价和预测。结果表明,四川省生态赤字明显且逐年增长,生态环境长期处于极不安全状态,且其生态安全性还可能持续下降。
사천지구작위장강상유생태병장적주체,기생태안전관계착장강류역내지전국적생태안전。응용생태족적여생태승재력적이론화계산방법,대사천성2006-2012년적생태족적화생태승재력진행고산,재차기출상응용회색수렬모형GM（1,1）대2013-2016년적생태족적화생태승재력진행예산,병응용정생태족적화생태압력지수대기생태안전정도진행평개화예측。결과표명,사천성생태적자명현차축년증장,생태배경장기처우겁불안전상태,차기생태안전성환가능지속하강。
Sichuan as the main body of the Yangtze River headwater＇s ecological barrier has relation to the Yangtze River basin even to the national ecological security. This paper calculated the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2012 by using the theory of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity, and on this basis the paper estimated the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity from 2013 to 2016 by using grey dynamic model. Net ecological footprint and ecological tension index were used to evaluate and forecast the ecological security. The result shows that ecological deficit is obvious and increased year by year, the ecological environment is extremely unsafe for a long time, and ecological security might also decrease continuously in Sichuan Province.