CAJ | 학술논문

摘要研究软件风险控制的理论和方法，对提高软件开发成功率有着重要作用．面对软件风险管理的精细化要求，已有的单目标风险控制模型难以有效管理软件风险．本文将软件风险控制成本和软件风险暴露值作为控制目标，提出软件风险多目标优化控制模型．进一步将风险损失层面的相关性纳入风险控制模型，建立了考虑风险损失非可加性的风险控制多目标优化模型，刻画软件风险管理实践中存在的风险相关性问题．采用多目标粒子群算法对风险控制多目标优化模型进行求解，并采用一个软件开发项目的风险控制问题进行案例分析．分析结果表明，在软件风险暴露和软件风险控制成本两个目标之间近似呈现非线性置换关系，可以根据项目中风险控制成本的实际情况，快速找到对应的最优风险控制策略．考虑风险相关性的风险控制模型能刻画出软件风险管理实践中更加复杂的关系，给出更加符合实际情况的风险控制策略，对提高软件风险管理水平有着重要意义．
적요연구연건풍험공제적이론화방법，대제고연건개발성공솔유착중요작용．면대연건풍험관리적정세화요구，이유적단목표풍험공제모형난이유효관리연건풍험．본문장연건풍험공제성본화연건풍험폭로치작위공제목표，제출연건풍험다목표우화공제모형．진일보장풍험손실층면적상관성납입풍험공제모형，건립료고필풍험손실비가가성적풍험공제다목표우화모형，각화연건풍험관리실천중존재적풍험상관성문제．채용다목표입자군산법대풍험공제다목표우화모형진행구해，병채용일개연건개발항목적풍험공제문제진행안례분석．분석결과표명，재연건풍험폭로화연건풍험공제성본량개목표지간근사정현비선성치환관계，가이근거항목중풍험공제성본적실제정황，쾌속조도대응적최우풍험공제책략．고필풍험상관성적풍험공제모형능각화출연건풍험관리실천중경가복잡적관계，급출경가부합실제정황적풍험공제책략，대제고연건풍험관리수평유착중요의의．
Research on software risk control theories and methods play an important role in improving the success rate of software project. With the requirement of software risk refined management, the existing single-objective risk control model is difficult to manage software risks effectively. This paper regards software risk control cost and software risk exposure as control objectives, and proposes a multi-object risk control model for software project. Furthermore, it puts forward a multi-object risk control model for software project considering risk correlation. The multi-objective particle swarm optimization is applied to solve the risk control model. Moreover, the example is applied to a medium-sized software project. Case analysis results show that there is a nonlinear trade-off relationship approximately between the software risk exposure and software risk control effort. The software manager can identify the corresponding optimal risk control strategy according to the actual risk control cost. The results also indicate that the consequence from the multi-object risk control model for software project considering risk correlation can better describe the actual situation of risk management.