CAJ | 학술논문

摘要本文基于Agent模型构建了非常规突发事件公共恐慌演化仿真模型，以探讨不同的政府信息发布策略对公共恐慌的影响．特别地，该模型将信息分为真实有利信息、真实危机信息、不实有利信息、不实危机信息等四种信息类型，并以松花江水污染事件为研究案例，进行实证研究．结果表明，当非常规突发事件弓I发公共恐慌时，政府应该慎重发表言论，注重自身的公众形象，并在应急政策准备充分情况下，尽快公布事件真相消除不实危机信息所带来的不良影响，以有效避免与消除公共恐慌危机．
적요본문기우Agent모형구건료비상규돌발사건공공공황연화방진모형，이탐토불동적정부신식발포책략대공공공황적영향．특별지，해모형장신식분위진실유리신식、진실위궤신식、불실유리신식、불실위궤신식등사충신식류형，병이송화강수오염사건위연구안례，진행실증연구．결과표명，당비상규돌발사건궁I발공공공황시，정부응해신중발표언론，주중자신적공음형상，병재응급정책준비충분정황하，진쾌공포사건진상소제불실위궤신식소대래적불량영향，이유효피면여소제공공공황위궤．
This paper tends to propose a multi-agent based model to discover effective information publica- tion policy to control public panic caused by unconventional emergencies. In particular, information in this model is classified into four types： real favorable information, real crisis information, favorable rumor and crisis rumor, in order to simulate different policies with different information types and publication times. Taking the water pollution accident of the Songhua River as an example, the empirical results demonstrate that government should pay attention to public image and publish information seriously, release the real information, and guild public opinion actively as soon as responding measures are determined, in order to avoid public panic crisis.