CAJ | 학술논문

摘要应急物资调运是应对非常规突发事件的重要环节，本文基于系统动力学，从政府应急管理的视角出发，研究影响应急物资调运速度的主要因素．本文将应急物资按需求分为两类——累积性需求物资和非累积性需求物资，并在此基础上构建了应急物资调运的一般系统动力学模型，并以2005年吉林石化双苯厂爆炸导致的松花江水污染事件为例，以当时最紧缺物资——活性炭的调运进行仿真验证．研究发现：在应急物资的补给过程中，政府对突发事件信息的反应时滞和政府应急物资调度能力起到了决定性作用．研究结果对于政府提高应急物资调运速度进而更好地应对非常规突发事件具有重要参考价值．
적요응급물자조운시응대비상규돌발사건적중요배절，본문기우계통동역학，종정부응급관리적시각출발，연구영향응급물자조운속도적주요인소．본문장응급물자안수구분위량류——루적성수구물자화비루적성수구물자，병재차기출상구건료응급물자조운적일반계통동역학모형，병이2005년길림석화쌍분엄폭작도치적송화강수오염사건위례，이당시최긴결물자——활성탄적조운진행방진험증．연구발현：재응급물자적보급과정중，정부대돌발사건신식적반응시체화정부응급물자조도능력기도료결정성작용．연구결과대우정부제고응급물자조운속도진이경호지응대비상규돌발사건구유중요삼고개치．
Emergency materials transportation is one of the most important parts of unconventional emergency management. Using system dynamic model, this paper conducts the simulation study to identify the key influencing factors for the speed of emergency materials transportation. We firstly classify emergency materials into cumulative part and the non-cumulative part, and then construct a system dynamics analysis model for the emergency materials transportation. For verification, the transportation process of activated carbon in the 2005 Songhua river pollution accident is simulated empirically. Results from the simulation analysis show that the government emergency response delay and the capability of governmental emergency materials transportation are key factors in the process of emergency materials transportation. Work in this paper serves as important reference when the government formulating the policy to improve the speed and efficiency for the emergency materials transportation during the emergency management process.