CAJ | 학술논문

运用局部均衡模型,从6分位产品层面模拟不同关税策略情形下,中日韩自由贸易区建立后的贸易效应以及本国经济效应,并分析各国最优的关税策略。研究表明,自贸区建立后中国受到严重冲击的产品主要集中在工业用制成品、资本品以及能源类产品,日韩贸易转移效应显著的产品为工业品。综合考虑福利效应和贸易效应,日韩两国最优策略为直接采取零关税;对中国而言,在同期形成中日韩自贸区的情形下,直接实行零关税对于中国福利的改进是最为有利的;若在中韩或中日自贸区基础上逐步形成中日韩自贸区,中国的最优关税策略为逐步减税。
운용국부균형모형,종6분위산품층면모의불동관세책략정형하,중일한자유무역구건립후적무역효응이급본국경제효응,병분석각국최우적관세책략。연구표명,자무구건립후중국수도엄중충격적산품주요집중재공업용제성품、자본품이급능원류산품,일한무역전이효응현저적산품위공업품。종합고필복리효응화무역효응,일한량국최우책략위직접채취령관세;대중국이언,재동기형성중일한자무구적정형하,직접실행령관세대우중국복리적개진시최위유리적;약재중한혹중일자무구기출상축보형성중일한자무구,중국적최우관세책략위축보감세。
This paper analyzes the effects of free trade agreement in the situation of gradually reducing the tariff and directly reducing it to zero based on partial equilibrium model. In addition, it analyzes the tariff effect, trade effect and welfare effect of FTA on the three countries, and discusses the optimal tariff strategy. It concludes that manufactured goods, capital goods and energy products will suffer from the FTA. The trade diversion effects of Japan and Korea are concentrated on manufactured goods. Japan and Korea should take the zero-tariff strategy. In the same circumstance of forming the FTA of China- Japan-Korea, the execution of a direct zero-tariff strategy will be the most favorable for China. When China forms the FTA with Japan or South Korea separately, the optimal strategy will be the gradual reduction of tariff.