教育研究
教育研究
교육연구
Educational Research
2015年
3期
35~46
,共null页
“单独二孩”政策 受教育人口预测 “十三五” 教育发展规划
“單獨二孩”政策 受教育人口預測 “十三五” 教育髮展規劃
“단독이해”정책 수교육인구예측 “십삼오” 교육발전규화
＂Selective Two-child Policy＂, pre-school and school-aged population forecast, ＂Thirteenth Five-Year Plan＂ period, educational development planning
基于中国2005年1％人口抽样和2010年人口普查资料，在对不同夫妇的婚配概率和堆积释放生育估计的基础上，从全国、城镇、农村三个维度，对学龄前、小学、初中、高中、大学五个阶段的受教育人口变动趋势进行预测和分析。在“单独二孩”政策下，我国受教育人口的规模有所增长，但长期总趋势是在波动中下降；学龄前儿童在2017年达到峰值，小学、初中、高中、大学学龄人口经过不同的波动轨迹在2020--2036年间逐类达到高峰后转为下降；城镇在波动中增长，农村则单边下降；全国受教育人口的变动态势，主要受城镇受教育人口变动的影响；要特别关注城乡学龄人口的不同发展态势，为应对未来各级学龄人口变动预先做好充分准备；“十三五”时期城镇学龄前儿童的快速增长，是制定“十三五”教育发展规划必须正视和解决的问题。
基于中國2005年1％人口抽樣和2010年人口普查資料，在對不同伕婦的婚配概率和堆積釋放生育估計的基礎上，從全國、城鎮、農村三箇維度，對學齡前、小學、初中、高中、大學五箇階段的受教育人口變動趨勢進行預測和分析。在“單獨二孩”政策下，我國受教育人口的規模有所增長，但長期總趨勢是在波動中下降；學齡前兒童在2017年達到峰值，小學、初中、高中、大學學齡人口經過不同的波動軌跡在2020--2036年間逐類達到高峰後轉為下降；城鎮在波動中增長，農村則單邊下降；全國受教育人口的變動態勢，主要受城鎮受教育人口變動的影響；要特彆關註城鄉學齡人口的不同髮展態勢，為應對未來各級學齡人口變動預先做好充分準備；“十三五”時期城鎮學齡前兒童的快速增長，是製定“十三五”教育髮展規劃必鬚正視和解決的問題。
기우중국2005년1％인구추양화2010년인구보사자료，재대불동부부적혼배개솔화퇴적석방생육고계적기출상，종전국、성진、농촌삼개유도，대학령전、소학、초중、고중、대학오개계단적수교육인구변동추세진행예측화분석。재“단독이해”정책하，아국수교육인구적규모유소증장，단장기총추세시재파동중하강；학령전인동재2017년체도봉치，소학、초중、고중、대학학령인구경과불동적파동궤적재2020--2036년간축류체도고봉후전위하강；성진재파동중증장，농촌칙단변하강；전국수교육인구적변동태세，주요수성진수교육인구변동적영향；요특별관주성향학령인구적불동발전태세，위응대미래각급학령인구변동예선주호충분준비；“십삼오”시기성진학령전인동적쾌속증장，시제정“십삼오”교육발전규화필수정시화해결적문제。
Making use of one percentage of population sample Survey in 2005 and census data in 2010, based on the ＂multi-age＂ marriage probability and marriage numbers among the only-child and non-only child, and the accumulation couples and birth release of the ＂Selective Two-child Policy＂, the trends of pre-school, elementary school, middle school, high school and college population from the national, urban, rural dimensions are estimated. It is found that under the ＂Selective Two-child Policy＂, the scale of both pre-school and school-aged population will have a growth process, but the overall trends will decline in the long-term change; pre-school children will reach a peak in 2017, while the school-aged population will vary differently during 2020--2036, but the increase will not occur simultaneously for different school levels ; the trends of pre-school and school-aged population in China will be quite different between urban and rural areas, and population scale in urban area will increase while in rural area will decline unilaterally. The change of school-aged population in China is mainly affected by the school-aged population in urban area. During the ＂Thirteenth Five-Year Plan＂ period, the rapid increase of the pre-school population in urban areas will bring great challenges for educational development planning, which must be treated correctly and solved properly.
