CAJ | 학술논문

利用全局与局域Moran’s I指数、LISA集聚图考察我国彩票、体育彩票和福利彩票的全局与局域空间集聚特征,运用空间面板模型研究我国彩票与体育彩票销售影响因素的直接与溢出效应。全局Moran’s I指数表明：人均彩票和体育彩票销售存在显著的空间依赖关系,具有地理上的集聚性;随时间推移,彩票销售的集聚性降低,而体育彩票销售的集聚性升高。城镇居民人均可支配收入、农村居民人均纯收入、失业率对彩票和体育彩票销售影响的直接效应和溢出效应为正,人均GDP的直接效应为负、溢出效应为正,股票人均月交易额的直接效应为正、溢出效应为负。
이용전국여국역Moran’s I지수、LISA집취도고찰아국채표、체육채표화복리채표적전국여국역공간집취특정,운용공간면판모형연구아국채표여체육채표소수영향인소적직접여일출효응。전국Moran’s I지수표명：인균채표화체육채표소수존재현저적공간의뢰관계,구유지리상적집취성;수시간추이,채표소수적집취성강저,이체육채표소수적집취성승고。성진거민인균가지배수입、농촌거민인균순수입、실업솔대채표화체육채표소수영향적직접효응화일출효응위정,인균GDP적직접효응위부、일출효응위정,고표인균월교역액적직접효응위정、일출효응위부。
This paper uses global and local Moran＇ s index, LISA clustering figure to investigate the global and local spatial clustering features of lottery, sport lottery and welfare lottery. By using the spatial panel model, the study analyzes the direct and spillover effects of influence factors of China＇ s lottery and sport lottery sales. Global Moran＇ s index indicates that there is a significant spatial dependency between per capita lottery and sport lottery sales with a geographic concentration. The results also find that the clustering of lottery decreases and the clustering of sports lottery increases over time. There are a positive direct effect and a spillover effect of the influence factors, including urban per capita disposable income, per capita net income and unemployment rate, on lottery and sport lottery sale; while a negative direct effect of both per capita GDP and stock per month turnover, and a negative spillover effect are found on lottery and sport lottery sales.