安徽农业大学学报：社会科学版
安徽農業大學學報：社會科學版
안휘농업대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Anhui Agricultural University（Philosophy & Social Sciences Edition)
2015年
2期
56~61
,共null页
旁价波动 HP滤波 货币信贷政策 房地产宏观调控
徬價波動 HP濾波 貨幣信貸政策 房地產宏觀調控
방개파동 HP려파 화폐신대정책 방지산굉관조공
housing price fluctuation; HP Filter; monetary and credit policy; real estate macro-control
通过比较近年来我国房价名义增长率与GDP、居民收入增长率，发现房价增长率的波动明显大于GDP与居民收入增长率，并用HP滤波方法计算出我国的房价波动幅度；认为自2003年以来政府调控房地产的货币信贷政策主要是以调整存款准备金率与利率、调整开发项目资本金比例、限定贷款主体资格、差别化的住房信贷政策为主；认为货币信贷政策本身存在缺陷、地方政府与商业银行执行不力以及我国特殊的房地产业发展环境是制约货币信贷政策调控效果的主要因素，并提出了相应的政策建议以期为政府调控房地产市场提供参考。
通過比較近年來我國房價名義增長率與GDP、居民收入增長率，髮現房價增長率的波動明顯大于GDP與居民收入增長率，併用HP濾波方法計算齣我國的房價波動幅度；認為自2003年以來政府調控房地產的貨幣信貸政策主要是以調整存款準備金率與利率、調整開髮項目資本金比例、限定貸款主體資格、差彆化的住房信貸政策為主；認為貨幣信貸政策本身存在缺陷、地方政府與商業銀行執行不力以及我國特殊的房地產業髮展環境是製約貨幣信貸政策調控效果的主要因素，併提齣瞭相應的政策建議以期為政府調控房地產市場提供參攷。
통과비교근년래아국방개명의증장솔여GDP、거민수입증장솔，발현방개증장솔적파동명현대우GDP여거민수입증장솔，병용HP려파방법계산출아국적방개파동폭도；인위자2003년이래정부조공방지산적화폐신대정책주요시이조정존관준비금솔여리솔、조정개발항목자본금비례、한정대관주체자격、차별화적주방신대정책위주；인위화폐신대정책본신존재결함、지방정부여상업은행집행불력이급아국특수적방지산업발전배경시제약화폐신대정책조공효과적주요인소，병제출료상응적정책건의이기위정부조공방지산시장제공삼고。
The paper compared the growth rate ot housmg prices with growth and discovered that housing price fluctuation is more volatile than that of GDP and resident income, and worked out the fluctuation range of housing price by HP Filter. It is claimed that the main monetary and credit policies used in the real estate macro-control since 2003 are： adjusting the deposit reserve ratio, interest rate and capital ratio of project, restricting the joan qualification and differentiating housing credit policy. There are some factors restricting macro-control effect, such as policy defect, poor execution of local government and commercial bank and the peculiar real estate environment. This paper also proposes some policies and suggestions to help government control real estate market.
