CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用行业就业吸纳总量与吸纳效率相结合的分析方法,找出了对我国农民工城镇就业吸纳能力较强的7个重点行业。其后,利用上述行业在2003-2011年9年间增加值及农民工就业人数两个基础数据进行相关性分析后认为：5个行业中农民工就业结构与增加值结构存在较为密切的关联;同时,7个重点行业的单位增加值就业指标均逐年持续下降,意味着资本替代与技术进步对农民工就业的＂挤出＂效应越来越明显。因而,从提高行业增加值来提升农民工城镇就业的角度而言,需要重新审视产业升级的速度和方式,不能盲目地仅发展第三产业,而是要大力扶持上述5个行业并维持和巩固其余2个行业的发展规模。
본문이용행업취업흡납총량여흡납효솔상결합적분석방법,조출료대아국농민공성진취업흡납능력교강적7개중점행업。기후,이용상술행업재2003-2011년9년간증가치급농민공취업인수량개기출수거진행상관성분석후인위：5개행업중농민공취업결구여증가치결구존재교위밀절적관련;동시,7개중점행업적단위증가치취업지표균축년지속하강,의미착자본체대여기술진보대농민공취업적＂제출＂효응월래월명현。인이,종제고행업증가치래제승농민공성진취업적각도이언,수요중신심시산업승급적속도화방식,불능맹목지부발전제삼산업,이시요대력부지상술5개행업병유지화공고기여2개행업적발전규모。
This article finds 7 industries absorbing more employment of rural migrant workers than other industries through the method combining absorbed total and absorbed efficiency of industry employment. With the correlation analysis of the added value and the number of employed rural migrant workers of above 7 industries from 2003 to 2011,this article concludes that the structure of employment and sectors＇ value added in 5 industries has close association. The number of employed people per unit added value in the above 7 industries continue to decline year by year,which means that ＂crowding out ＂ effect on the employment of migrant workers by capital substitution and technological progress becomes apparent. Thus,it is necessary to reassess the pace and mode of industrial upgrading from the perspective of raise the employment level of rural migrant workers in urban areas by enhancing the value added of the corresponding industries. This paper indicates China should support these 5 industries and maintain the rest 2 industries in the scale of development in instead of only developing the tertiary industry blindly.