CAJ | 학술논문

文章从进口来源的角度对中国大豆进口数量波动进行了分解，发现美国来源的进口数量的波动最大，阿根延次之，巴西最小，且不同来源进口波动方向往往相反，这在一定程度上降低了中国大豆进口总量的波动程度。利用2001—2013年中国大豆进口的月度数据，对进口数量来源地布局变化对中国大豆进口波动的影响进行了实证分析，结果表明，巴西、阿根廷等南美市场在中国大豆进口市场中所占份额的提高有效抑制了中国大豆进口数量的波动性。值得引起高度重视的是，简单的来源多样化并不一定能够有效降低进口波动性。如果新兴进口来源国的出口时间与传统进口来源国相同，或者出口时间与进口来源国相反但对中国的出口量远远高于传统进口来源国，则进口数量来源地布局的变动可能会加剧进口波动性。
문장종진구래원적각도대중국대두진구수량파동진행료분해，발현미국래원적진구수량적파동최대，아근연차지，파서최소，차불동래원진구파동방향왕왕상반，저재일정정도상강저료중국대두진구총량적파동정도。이용2001—2013년중국대두진구적월도수거，대진구수량래원지포국변화대중국대두진구파동적영향진행료실증분석，결과표명，파서、아근정등남미시장재중국대두진구시장중소점빈액적제고유효억제료중국대두진구수량적파동성。치득인기고도중시적시，간단적래원다양화병불일정능구유효강저진구파동성。여과신흥진구래원국적출구시간여전통진구래원국상동，혹자출구시간여진구래원국상반단대중국적출구량원원고우전통진구래원국，칙진구수량래원지포국적변동가능회가극진구파동성。
By decomposing China＇s soybean import fluctuation according to the source of import, this paper finds that the fluctuation is most significant for import from the U.S., followed by that from Argentina, and the fluctuation of the import from Brazil is the least significant. Meanwhile, the import fluctuation with the three source countries often goes in opposite directions, which works in a certain degree to redress the overall fluctuation of China＇s import of soybean. On this basis, this paper analyzes the impact of source distribution changes on China＇s soybean import fluctuation by using monthly data from year 1995 to 2012. The empirical results show that the rising share of the South American market in China＇s soybean import market has effective;y curled the fluctuation of China＇s soybean import. However, it should be highly noted that the simple diversification of import sources may not be able to smoothen trade ups and downs effectively. If the time of exports from new import sources coincides with that of traditional sources, or if the imports from new sources surpass those from traditional sources on a large scale, then the change in the import source distribution may exacerbate the import fluctuation.