CAJ | 학술논문

本文将习惯偏好引入传统的预防性储蓄模型,并构造出检验居民预防性储蓄动机的计量方程.利用中国26个省1999-2011年城乡居民消费数据进行实证分析.回归结果发现,在控制了习惯形成效应后,城乡居民依然存在显著的预防性储蓄动机,但是该动机强度比无习惯偏好时降低了约1/2.同时,城乡对比结果表明,在绝对层面,农村居民具有更大的衡量预防性储蓄动机强度的绝对谨慎系数,其值约为城镇居民的1.5倍;然而基于现有消费,农村居民衡量预防性储蓄量的相对谨慎系数则要小于城镇居民.最后在城乡二元结构背景下对上述结果进行解释,并给出相应的政策建议.
본문장습관편호인입전통적예방성저축모형,병구조출검험거민예방성저축동궤적계량방정.이용중국26개성1999-2011년성향거민소비수거진행실증분석.회귀결과발현,재공제료습관형성효응후,성향거민의연존재현저적예방성저축동궤,단시해동궤강도비무습관편호시강저료약1/2.동시,성향대비결과표명,재절대층면,농촌거민구유경대적형량예방성저축동궤강도적절대근신계수,기치약위성진거민적1.5배;연이기우현유소비,농촌거민형량예방성저축량적상대근신계수칙요소우성진거민.최후재성향이원결구배경하대상술결과진행해석,병급출상응적정책건의.
This paper introduces the habit formation into the classical precautionary saving model, and derives the refutable propositions for testing precautionary saving motive under the habit preference. We then use the 1999-2011 provincial-level panel date to estimate the model. Main empirical results are （i） urban and rural residents have strong precautionary saving motive, even after controlling the habit formation effect （ii） the strength of the motive is reduced by half, （iii） rural residents have stronger absolute level precautionary saving motive, while urban residents＇ motive is stronger in the relative level. Finally, we offer plausible explanations and policy recommendations to our findings under the urban-rural dual economics structure background.