人口研究
人口研究
인구연구
Population Research
2015年
2期
48~56
,共null页
翟振武 陈佳鞠 李龙
翟振武 陳佳鞠 李龍
적진무 진가국 리룡
中国出生人口 “单独二孩”政策 生育率 出生人口性别比
中國齣生人口 “單獨二孩”政策 生育率 齣生人口性彆比
중국출생인구 “단독이해”정책 생육솔 출생인구성별비
Number of Births, Two - child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Sibling, FertilityRate, Sex Ratio at Birth
2014年，“单独二孩”政策全面启动实施，中国出生人口迎来了两个新变化：一是出生人口性别比大幅降落，二是出生人口总数大幅上升。面对生育政策的新调整和出生人口的新变化，有必要对中国人口的生育现状及其未来变动趋势加以探讨。文章通过分析“单独二孩”政策实施效果讨论了中国人口的生育现状，并在此基础上对未来短期内中国生育水平的发展趋势进行推断。研究显示，到目前为止，“单独二孩”政策实施效果符合预期；依据全国“单独”夫妇的再生育申报状况可以推断出2015年全国出生人口总数有望升至接近1800万的水平；中国目前的总和生育率并未低至“危机”之中。伴随着生育政策的进一步调整完善，中国的生育水平仍具有回升潜力，未来短期内总和生育率可能会上升至1．7以匕的水平。
2014年，“單獨二孩”政策全麵啟動實施，中國齣生人口迎來瞭兩箇新變化：一是齣生人口性彆比大幅降落，二是齣生人口總數大幅上升。麵對生育政策的新調整和齣生人口的新變化，有必要對中國人口的生育現狀及其未來變動趨勢加以探討。文章通過分析“單獨二孩”政策實施效果討論瞭中國人口的生育現狀，併在此基礎上對未來短期內中國生育水平的髮展趨勢進行推斷。研究顯示，到目前為止，“單獨二孩”政策實施效果符閤預期；依據全國“單獨”伕婦的再生育申報狀況可以推斷齣2015年全國齣生人口總數有望升至接近1800萬的水平；中國目前的總和生育率併未低至“危機”之中。伴隨著生育政策的進一步調整完善，中國的生育水平仍具有迴升潛力，未來短期內總和生育率可能會上升至1．7以匕的水平。
2014년，“단독이해”정책전면계동실시，중국출생인구영래료량개신변화：일시출생인구성별비대폭강락，이시출생인구총수대폭상승。면대생육정책적신조정화출생인구적신변화，유필요대중국인구적생육현상급기미래변동추세가이탐토。문장통과분석“단독이해”정책실시효과토론료중국인구적생육현상，병재차기출상대미래단기내중국생육수평적발전추세진행추단。연구현시，도목전위지，“단독이해”정책실시효과부합예기；의거전국“단독”부부적재생육신보상황가이추단출2015년전국출생인구총수유망승지접근1800만적수평；중국목전적총화생육솔병미저지“위궤”지중。반수착생육정책적진일보조정완선，중국적생육수평잉구유회승잠력，미래단기내총화생육솔가능회상승지1．7이비적수평。
China has fully implemented a two - child fertility policy for couples that either side has no siblings. Meanwhile, two noticeable changes were observed in 20]4. One was a noticeable fall in the sex ratio at birth, while the other was a marked increase of the number of annual births. In this context, this paper examines China＇ s current fertility by analyzing the effect of the new fertility policy and estimates fertility trends in the near future. Our analyses suggest that the new fertility policy has just had the effect that was previously expected, and China＇ s annual births would be expected to increase to nearly 18 million in 2015. China has not yet had the fertility ＂crisis＂. With further adjustment of fertility policy, China＇ s fertility level still has potential to upturn and would rise to I. ＂7 or over in the very near future.
