华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
East China Economic Management
2015年
4期
90~93
,共null页
城镇化 动态模拟
城鎮化 動態模擬
성진화 동태모의
Agent;urbanization;Agent;dynamic simulation
我国正处在城镇化快速发展时期，其未来的状态变化受到多个因素的交叉影响。文章从系统论观点出发，分析了城镇化过程的影响因素，建立了城镇化发展的多Agent模拟模型，模拟了智能体行为选择与状态演化的机理，预测了2014-2020年我国城镇化水平的变化趋势。模拟结果显示：劳动力迁移是影响城镇化水平的直接因素；就业机会的增多、户籍改革政策的实施均为农村人口转变提供了生存保障，是影响城镇化水平的关键因素；到2020年，我国城镇化水平可达63.8%左右。
我國正處在城鎮化快速髮展時期，其未來的狀態變化受到多箇因素的交扠影響。文章從繫統論觀點齣髮，分析瞭城鎮化過程的影響因素，建立瞭城鎮化髮展的多Agent模擬模型，模擬瞭智能體行為選擇與狀態縯化的機理，預測瞭2014-2020年我國城鎮化水平的變化趨勢。模擬結果顯示：勞動力遷移是影響城鎮化水平的直接因素；就業機會的增多、戶籍改革政策的實施均為農村人口轉變提供瞭生存保障，是影響城鎮化水平的關鍵因素；到2020年，我國城鎮化水平可達63.8%左右。
아국정처재성진화쾌속발전시기，기미래적상태변화수도다개인소적교차영향。문장종계통론관점출발，분석료성진화과정적영향인소，건립료성진화발전적다Agent모의모형，모의료지능체행위선택여상태연화적궤리，예측료2014-2020년아국성진화수평적변화추세。모의결과현시：노동력천이시영향성진화수평적직접인소；취업궤회적증다、호적개혁정책적실시균위농촌인구전변제공료생존보장，시영향성진화수평적관건인소；도2020년，아국성진화수평가체63.8%좌우。
China is undergoing a rapid period of urbanization, the changes of its future state are influenced by multiple factors. This paper, from the perspective of system theory, makes an analysis on the internal and external factors of urbanization process, builds a computer simulation model by the multi-agent model of urbanization development in Anylogic platform, and forecasts the change trend of China’s urbanization level from 2014 to 2020. The simulation results show that：Labor migration is the direct factor affecting the level of urbanization. Both the increase of employment opportunities and the implementation of household registration reform policy, which are the key factors affecting the level of urbanization, provide living guarantees for the rural people migration. And China’s urbanization level will reach about 63.8%by 2020.
