商业经济与管理
商業經濟與管理
상업경제여관리
Business Economics and Administration
2015年
3期
23~33
,共null页
税收政策 经济增长 非线性效应 MS-VAR模型
稅收政策 經濟增長 非線性效應 MS-VAR模型
세수정책 경제증장 비선성효응 MS-VAR모형
tax policy ; economic growth; nonlinear effects ; MS-VAR model
全面分析与科学把握我国税收政策方向与节奏不仅事关政府宏观调控与驾驭经济能力的提升，更是实现有质量、有效益、可持续经济增长的关键。文章首先基于创新驱动经济增长的内生增长模型构建税收对经济增长影响的理论分析框架，然后采用MS-VAR模型与利用中国季度数据，从总量与结构双重视角实证考察我国税收政策对经济增长的影响，结果发现：一是当处于区制1时，无论是税收的总量抑或结构效应，均表现出非凯恩斯主义特征，但并不显著；二是当位于区制2时，税收对经济增长的总量影响表现为凯恩斯效应，而商品税与所得税对经济增长的影响存在显著差异。其中商品税与经济增长正相关，所得税与经济增长负相关。另外无论是税收的总量效应抑或结构效应，在继续维持各自区制内的稳定性方面表现都非常强，从一个区制向另一个区制发生转换的概率非常小。文章研究结论对于创新政府宏观调控方式与增强税收政策调控的前瞻性、针对性与有效性具有非常重要的理论与实际意义。
全麵分析與科學把握我國稅收政策方嚮與節奏不僅事關政府宏觀調控與駕馭經濟能力的提升，更是實現有質量、有效益、可持續經濟增長的關鍵。文章首先基于創新驅動經濟增長的內生增長模型構建稅收對經濟增長影響的理論分析框架，然後採用MS-VAR模型與利用中國季度數據，從總量與結構雙重視角實證攷察我國稅收政策對經濟增長的影響，結果髮現：一是噹處于區製1時，無論是稅收的總量抑或結構效應，均錶現齣非凱恩斯主義特徵，但併不顯著；二是噹位于區製2時，稅收對經濟增長的總量影響錶現為凱恩斯效應，而商品稅與所得稅對經濟增長的影響存在顯著差異。其中商品稅與經濟增長正相關，所得稅與經濟增長負相關。另外無論是稅收的總量效應抑或結構效應，在繼續維持各自區製內的穩定性方麵錶現都非常彊，從一箇區製嚮另一箇區製髮生轉換的概率非常小。文章研究結論對于創新政府宏觀調控方式與增彊稅收政策調控的前瞻性、針對性與有效性具有非常重要的理論與實際意義。
전면분석여과학파악아국세수정책방향여절주불부사관정부굉관조공여가어경제능력적제승，경시실현유질량、유효익、가지속경제증장적관건。문장수선기우창신구동경제증장적내생증장모형구건세수대경제증장영향적이론분석광가，연후채용MS-VAR모형여이용중국계도수거，종총량여결구쌍중시각실증고찰아국세수정책대경제증장적영향，결과발현：일시당처우구제1시，무론시세수적총량억혹결구효응，균표현출비개은사주의특정，단병불현저；이시당위우구제2시，세수대경제증장적총량영향표현위개은사효응，이상품세여소득세대경제증장적영향존재현저차이。기중상품세여경제증장정상관，소득세여경제증장부상관。령외무론시세수적총량효응억혹결구효응，재계속유지각자구제내적은정성방면표현도비상강，종일개구제향령일개구제발생전환적개솔비상소。문장연구결론대우창신정부굉관조공방식여증강세수정책조공적전첨성、침대성여유효성구유비상중요적이론여실제의의。
A comprehensive analysis and scientific understanding of the direction and rhythm of the tax policy of China is not only related to the promotion of the government macro-control capability and the ability of managing economy, but is also the key to maintaining a growing, cost-effective and sustainable economy. Based on endogenous growth model of the innovation-driven economic growth, this thesis constructed the theoretical framework of the tax impact on economic growth and then adopted MS-VAR model and used China quarterly data to study the impact of tax policy on economic growth from the bilateral perspective of both the total volume and the structure. The results show that： when the model was in regime 1, both the total amount of the tax and the structural effect exhibited the non-Keynesian feature, but not evident. However, when the model is in regime 2, tax impact on the total amount of economic growth exhibit Keynesian effects, but there is significant difference between commodity tax and income tax on the eco-nomic growth. Still, the commodity tax and economic growth is positively related and the income tax negatively related. In addition, both the total effects and the structural effects of tax show so strong stability in maintaining their respective regimes that there is a small probability for them to transform from one regime to the other. The conclusion of this paper has remarkable theoretical and practical significance for the government to innovate its macro-control mode and make the tax policy more prospective, more targeted and more effective.
