财经理论与实践
財經理論與實踐
재경이론여실천
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
2015年
2期
16~21
,共null页
消费习惯偏好 货币扩张 产出非对称效应 LSTVAR模型 DSGE模型
消費習慣偏好 貨幣擴張 產齣非對稱效應 LSTVAR模型 DSGE模型
소비습관편호 화폐확장 산출비대칭효응 LSTVAR모형 DSGE모형
Consumption habit preference; monetary expansion; the asymmetric effect of output; LSTVAR model; DSGE model
运用LSTVAR方法,考量货币扩张、消费习惯偏好与产出非对称效应,发现货币扩张的产出效应具有非对称性,且货币扩张在＂低增长区制＂下的产出效应显著大于在＂高增长区制＂下的产出效应。消费习惯偏好的程度差异是导致不同经济区制下货币政策非对称效应的主要原因,且低消费习惯偏好下货币扩张的产出效果更好。鉴此,政府在主动降低经济增速要求的同时,应积极创新宏观调控方式,改善居民消费环境,优化居民消费结构,以降低居民消费习惯偏好。
運用LSTVAR方法,攷量貨幣擴張、消費習慣偏好與產齣非對稱效應,髮現貨幣擴張的產齣效應具有非對稱性,且貨幣擴張在＂低增長區製＂下的產齣效應顯著大于在＂高增長區製＂下的產齣效應。消費習慣偏好的程度差異是導緻不同經濟區製下貨幣政策非對稱效應的主要原因,且低消費習慣偏好下貨幣擴張的產齣效果更好。鑒此,政府在主動降低經濟增速要求的同時,應積極創新宏觀調控方式,改善居民消費環境,優化居民消費結構,以降低居民消費習慣偏好。
운용LSTVAR방법,고량화폐확장、소비습관편호여산출비대칭효응,발현화폐확장적산출효응구유비대칭성,차화폐확장재＂저증장구제＂하적산출효응현저대우재＂고증장구제＂하적산출효응。소비습관편호적정도차이시도치불동경제구제하화폐정책비대칭효응적주요원인,차저소비습관편호하화폐확장적산출효과경호。감차,정부재주동강저경제증속요구적동시,응적겁창신굉관조공방식,개선거민소비배경,우화거민소비결구,이강저거민소비습관편호。
This paper analyzed the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on output by using LSTVAR model,and found that the output effect of monetary expansion in the low growth regime was significantly greater than the effect in the high growth regime.The research also showed that the difference of consumption habit preference was the main reason leading to asymmetric effect of monetary policy in different economic regime system,and the output effect of monetary expansion in low consumption habit preference regime will be better.Therefore,the government should reduce the economic growth speed requirements,and pursue actively macro-control innovation to improve the consumer environment and reduce the consumption habit preference.
