CAJ | 학술논문

在经历了1997年的亚洲金融危机和2002年的人世之后，中国农产品产出使用形式越来越多样化，相应地，以最终产品形式用于满足居民消费需求部分也发生很大变化。借鉴DeBoer思想，采用Montgomery分解与投入产出相结合的方法，将影响中国居民农产品消费变化的因素分解为规模效应、技术效应、结构效应和总量效应。结果表明：第一，从总体影响作用看，技术效应对农产品消费结构升级作用明显；第二，从影响程度看，相对于加工农产品，初级农产品消费受各因素的影响程度更大；第三，从中长期看，中期消费规模效应对农产品消费影响较大，但长期内最终消费需求的总量效应作用更强；第四，对于加工农产品而言，中期水产品加工业消费受影响显著，而长期酒精及饮料酒制造业、其他饮料制造业消费受影响较为明显。
재경력료1997년적아주금융위궤화2002년적인세지후，중국농산품산출사용형식월래월다양화，상응지，이최종산품형식용우만족거민소비수구부분야발생흔대변화。차감DeBoer사상，채용Montgomery분해여투입산출상결합적방법，장영향중국거민농산품소비변화적인소분해위규모효응、기술효응、결구효응화총량효응。결과표명：제일，종총체영향작용간，기술효응대농산품소비결구승급작용명현；제이，종영향정도간，상대우가공농산품，초급농산품소비수각인소적영향정도경대；제삼，종중장기간，중기소비규모효응대농산품소비영향교대，단장기내최종소비수구적총량효응작용경강；제사，대우가공농산품이언，중기수산품가공업소비수영향현저，이장기주정급음료주제조업、기타음료제조업소비수영향교위명현。
Chinese agricultural products have become more diversified, whereas consumer＇s behavior on food also has great changes after 1997, when the Asian financial crisis happened, and these changes were strengthened after 2002, the year China entering into the WTO. Drawing method from De Boer, this paper combines Montgomery decomposition with Input- Output technique, and decomposes determinants of Chinese residential consumption on agricultural products into scale effect, technological effect, structure effect and aggregate effect. The paper finds that： Firstly, in general, technological effect had a remarkable role in upgrading of consumption structure of agricultural products; Secondly, primary agricultural products are more susceptible than processed agricultural products; Thirdly, globalization caused consumption scale effect to have larger impact on consumption of agricultural products in the mid-term, whereas aggregate effect of final consumption demand had a stronger role in the long term; Fourthly, among processed agricultural products, consumption on products of aquatic products processing industry were more susceptible in the mid-term, while the alcoholic drinks and wine manufacturing sectors and other beverage manufacturing sectors were more susceptible in the long term.