CAJ | 학술논문

利用58家中国光伏产业上市公司2005~2012年季度数据,采用生产函数法,测度其产能利用情况,考察中国战略性新兴产业的产能过剩程度、成因和化解路径。研究发现：除了2008年、2010年和2011年外,中国光伏产业在其余年份的产能利用率均不足70%,2012年的产能利用率只有60%;中国光伏产业的资本产出弹性偏低,产业发展陷入了传统劳动密集型产业处于低端环节的发展老路;2005~2012年,中国光伏产业的产能过剩经历了四个阶段的升降交替,但总体上并未脱离新兴产业发展规律而出现严重的发展危机。文章认为中国光伏产业产能过剩由结构性过剩和体制性过剩构成,供需结构失衡、过度投资和用传统产业的发展思路发展新兴产业等因素是中国光伏产业产能过剩的主要原因。化解中国新兴产业的产能过剩,有必要迅速启动内需,构建＂市场发挥决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用＂的新兴产业产能过剩治理机制,走＂四个一批＂的化解路径。
이용58가중국광복산업상시공사2005~2012년계도수거,채용생산함수법,측도기산능이용정황,고찰중국전략성신흥산업적산능과잉정도、성인화화해로경。연구발현：제료2008년、2010년화2011년외,중국광복산업재기여년빈적산능이용솔균불족70%,2012년적산능이용솔지유60%;중국광복산업적자본산출탄성편저,산업발전함입료전통노동밀집형산업처우저단배절적발전로로;2005~2012년,중국광복산업적산능과잉경력료사개계단적승강교체,단총체상병미탈리신흥산업발전규률이출현엄중적발전위궤。문장인위중국광복산업산능과잉유결구성과잉화체제성과잉구성,공수결구실형、과도투자화용전통산업적발전사로발전신흥산업등인소시중국광복산업산능과잉적주요원인。화해중국신흥산업적산능과잉,유필요신속계동내수,구건＂시장발휘결정성작용화경호발휘정부작용＂적신흥산업산능과잉치리궤제,주＂사개일비＂적화해로경。
Based on fifty-eight listed companies＇ quarterly data of photovoltaic industry,this paper makes use of the method of production function to measure the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic industry of China from 2005 to 2012,and investigates the degree,causes and settlements of excess production capacity of Chinese strategic emerging industries. Results of the study show that： except for the years of 2008,2010 and 2011,capacity utilization rate are below 70 percent in all the rest years,and in 2012 it is only 60 percent. Photovoltaic industry＇s output elasticity of capital is low,indicating that development of photovoltaic falls into low-end links. Excess production capacity experiences four stages of going up and down alternately,but it does not digress from development law of emerging industries and hence photovoltaic industry does not have developmental crisis. This paper argues that the type of Photovoltaic industry＇s excess production capacity consists of structural excess and systematic excess,and imbalance between supply and demand,over-investment and the development ideas of emerging industries which is the same as traditional industries play an important role in excess production capacity. To dissolve emerging industries＇ excess production capacity,it is necessary to stimulate domestic demand quickly,build an excess production capacity governance mechanism where market mechanism plays a decisive role and government can better play its role,and take some effective measures.