CAJ | 학술논문

本文根据2002--2012年中国30个省份六大产业的产值与能源消耗数据,设计了基于Moore值的地区产业结构变迁升级的测度指数,在此基础上,使用动态面板广义矩估计方法实证分析了产业结构变迁对能源强度的影响。研究表明：近十年来,地区产业结构跨期变迁具有整体平稳且幅度较小的特征,同时也表现出时段波动和一定的地区差异性;产业结构的变迁升级,确实发挥了促进能源强度下降的显著结构效应。因此,本文认为,从经济与能源持续协调发展的角度来看,产业结构升级与能源强度优化目标具有战略一致性和可行性,而且产业结构调整可以作为能源强度优化的中间目标予以宏观调控。
본문근거2002--2012년중국30개성빈륙대산업적산치여능원소모수거,설계료기우Moore치적지구산업결구변천승급적측도지수,재차기출상,사용동태면판엄의구고계방법실증분석료산업결구변천대능원강도적영향。연구표명：근십년래,지구산업결구과기변천구유정체평은차폭도교소적특정,동시야표현출시단파동화일정적지구차이성;산업결구적변천승급,학실발휘료촉진능원강도하강적현저결구효응。인차,본문인위,종경제여능원지속협조발전적각도래간,산업결구승급여능원강도우화목표구유전략일치성화가행성,이차산업결구조정가이작위능원강도우화적중간목표여이굉관조공。
According to the data of output and energy consumption of six industrials in 30 provinces from 2002 to 2012,this paper designed the measure index of regional industrial structure evolution based on Moore value,and analyzed the impact of industrial structure evolution on energy intensity using dynamic panel GMM method. Research shows that,in the past ten years,the industrial structure evolution has characteristics of stable as a whole and small magnitude,but also shows time fluctuation and certain area difference. More importantly,the industrial structure evolution does significantly play a promoting effect of reducing energy intensity. Therefore,we believe that,from the sustainable development of economy and energy,the target strategic of industrial structure upgrading and energy intensity optimization is consistency and feasibility,and the adjustment of industrial structure can be macro-controlled as intermediate target of energy intensity optimization.