CAJ | 학술논문

本文以都市圈为空间地域单元，以全国人口普查数据为基础，综合运用多种计量方法系统分析京津冀都市圈人口变动与空间分布特征，并构建ROXY指数方法，探讨京津冀都市圈整体人口变动态势及核心城市北京、天津的城市化发展阶段及空间演化路径。研究表明，目前京津冀都市圈人口变动呈加速态势，城镇体系呈“双核”格局，各区域人口贡献度差异悬殊，人口空间分布不均等，人口城市化度稳步提升；京津冀都市圈总体上处于人口向空间分散的趋势变动，人口郊区化特征逐渐显现；北京和天津分别处于人口郊区化向逆城市化的过度阶段及人口城市化向郊区化的过渡阶段，都市圈的核心城市人口城市化演进更加迅速和成熟。
본문이도시권위공간지역단원，이전국인구보사수거위기출，종합운용다충계량방법계통분석경진기도시권인구변동여공간분포특정，병구건ROXY지수방법，탐토경진기도시권정체인구변동태세급핵심성시북경、천진적성시화발전계단급공간연화로경。연구표명，목전경진기도시권인구변동정가속태세，성진체계정“쌍핵”격국，각구역인구공헌도차이현수，인구공간분포불균등，인구성시화도은보제승；경진기도시권총체상처우인구향공간분산적추세변동，인구교구화특정축점현현；북경화천진분별처우인구교구화향역성시화적과도계단급인구성시화향교구화적과도계단，도시권적핵심성시인구성시화연진경가신속화성숙。
This paper , based on the city circle for the space geographical unit , on the basis of the national population census data , using synthetically various measurement methods , systematically analyzes population changes and spatial distribution characteristics of Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle , and building the ROXY index method , discusses the whole population change trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle and urbanization development stage and space evolution path of Beijing and Tianjin . The research shows that at present , metropolitan area＇s population change in Beijing -Tianjin-HeBei presents accelerated trend , urban system is “dual -core” pattern , internal population contribution difference is huge , population spatial distribution inequality is different , population urban-ization degree is rising steadily;on the whole , Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle is in the trend of population dispersal to space changes , emerging population suburbanization characteristics;Beijing and Tianjin are respectively is at the stage of population suburbaniza-tion to counter urbanization and population urbanization to population suburbanization .