CAJ | 학술논문

缩小我国城乡差距、提升农村消费水平的关键在于厘清城镇化发展、城乡收入及消费差距内在影响关系及变动特征。本文基于三者间内在关联性的分析,建立时变参数向量自回归模型,实证研究三者的动态影响特征以及不同时期影响效果的差异性。结果表明,中国城镇化发展对城乡收入、消费差距的影响均呈现出短期扩大、长期缩小的态势;在＂经济快速增长＂、＂经济危机＂及＂经济增长新常态＂三个不同时期,其短、长期影响效果均表现出显著差异性,并且,中国城乡收入差距仍然是导致消费差距的重要原因,二者的影响关系趋于稳定。
축소아국성향차거、제승농촌소비수평적관건재우전청성진화발전、성향수입급소비차거내재영향관계급변동특정。본문기우삼자간내재관련성적분석,건립시변삼수향량자회귀모형,실증연구삼자적동태영향특정이급불동시기영향효과적차이성。결과표명,중국성진화발전대성향수입、소비차거적영향균정현출단기확대、장기축소적태세;재＂경제쾌속증장＂、＂경제위궤＂급＂경제증장신상태＂삼개불동시기,기단、장기영향효과균표현출현저차이성,병차,중국성향수입차거잉연시도치소비차거적중요원인,이자적영향관계추우은정。
To narrow the gap between urban and rural areas and promote the consumption level in rural,the key is to realize the inner relationship and its changing characteristics between urbanization development and the income,consumption gap between urban and rural areas. Based on analyzing the internal connection between the three above,this paper employed a time varying parameter vector autoregressive model,empirically studied the characteristics of its dynamic effects and the variant effect of three different periods. The results showed that the effects of China＇s urbanization development on the income,consumption gap between urban and rural areas are expanding in the short-term and narrowing in the long-term; in the ＂rapid economic growth＂,＂economic crisis＂and＂new normal of economic growth＂period,the effects in both short-term and long-term had shown significant differences; and China ＇s income gap between urban and rural areas remains a major cause of the gap between consumption and the relationship between them is tending towards stability.