CAJ | 학술논문

基于城市内涝弹性的概念和内涵,建立了灰箱模型,借助主成分分析法构建了包括抵御能力、恢复能力和适应能力三个维度的城市内涝弹性评价体系,对全国238个地级及以上城市进行了内涝弹性评价,运用相关性分析方法对评价结果进行了分析。结果表明：在2008-2009年期间,238个城市中仅有29个城市未发生内涝;内涝弹性强、弱的城市呈集群分布,珠三角、长三角城市群城市内涝弹性较强,京津冀城市群、关中城市群内涝弹性较弱;城市内涝弹性与城市社会经济发展水平呈显著负相关关系,城市立交桥区域是城市内涝高发区;建成区内的城市绿地系统并未有效改善城市内涝弹性;城市排水与防洪堤不但没有缓解城市内涝,还侵蚀了城市内涝弹性。
기우성시내로탄성적개념화내함,건립료회상모형,차조주성분분석법구건료포괄저어능력、회복능력화괄응능력삼개유도적성시내로탄성평개체계,대전국238개지급급이상성시진행료내로탄성평개,운용상관성분석방법대평개결과진행료분석。결과표명：재2008-2009년기간,238개성시중부유29개성시미발생내로;내로탄성강、약적성시정집군분포,주삼각、장삼각성시군성시내로탄성교강,경진기성시군、관중성시군내로탄성교약;성시내로탄성여성시사회경제발전수평정현저부상관관계,성시입교교구역시성시내로고발구;건성구내적성시록지계통병미유효개선성시내로탄성;성시배수여방홍제불단몰유완해성시내로,환침식료성시내로탄성。
Based on the concept and connotation of ur- ban local flood resilience, this essay builds gray box model. The evaluation system including resistance, recovery and adaptation is constructed by using principal component analysis. The re- suits show that during the period of 2008 - 2009, only 29 cities have not been encountered by local flood. Cities with high resili- ence or low resilience present cluster patterns. Local flood resili- ence of cities located in Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is strong, while resilience of cities located in Jing - jin - ji urban agglomeration and Guanzhong urban agglomeration is weak. According to the correlation analysis, urban local flood resilience is significantly negatively correlated with urban socio -economic level, and urban overpass areas are high incidence of local flood. However, urban green space in built - up area did not improve urban local flood resilience effectively. Further- more, urban drainage system and levees not only did not allevi- ate urban local flood but also eroded urban local flood resilience.