CAJ | 학술논문

随着我国经济的飞速发展,能源过度消耗引起的环境问题日益严重,二氧化碳排放量的增加导致的温室效应成为我国乃至国际广泛关注的焦点。我国在2007年超过美国成为世界第一大碳排放国,根据哥本哈根气候谈判会议对发展中国家承担减排义务的要求,我国作出2020年相较2005年单位GDP二氧化碳排放量下降40%-45%的减排目标承诺。本文基于这一减排目标在对我国终端能源利用碳排放情况进行分析对比基础上,应用LMDI分解模型将碳排放增量变化分解为经济规模、产业结构等四个效应,根据分解结果运用协整方法建立碳排放量与经济发展等四个变量的长期均衡协整关系模型,基于协整方程采用蒙特卡洛动态模拟方法模拟了我国2020年碳排放情况。研究结果为：LMDI分解表明经济规模是我国碳排放增长的主导因素,技术进步对碳排放产生明显的负效应,产业结构与能源结构的影响相对有限;协整模型表明GDP、煤炭消费比重、能源强度与碳排放正相关,第三产业比重与碳排放负相关,符合经济意义;蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示按照目前的发展方式2020年我国单位GDP二氧化碳排放相较2005年下降约36%-39%,与我国提出的下降40%-45%减排承诺目标十分接近,但下降幅度并不理想,表明按照目前的发展路径、节能降耗水平和能源利用技术,我国距离完成哥本哈根年会所确定的减排目标还有一定距离,为完成减排目标还需加大节能减排力度。最后文章从优化产业结构、提高能源效率、优化能源结构、运用法律手段限制排放和加强节能减排宣传等四方面提出对策建议,为我国完成＂十二五＂和2020年减排目标提供借鉴。
수착아국경제적비속발전,능원과도소모인기적배경문제일익엄중,이양화탄배방량적증가도치적온실효응성위아국내지국제엄범관주적초점。아국재2007년초과미국성위세계제일대탄배방국,근거가본합근기후담판회의대발전중국가승담감배의무적요구,아국작출2020년상교2005년단위GDP이양화탄배방량하강40%-45%적감배목표승낙。본문기우저일감배목표재대아국종단능원이용탄배방정황진행분석대비기출상,응용LMDI분해모형장탄배방증량변화분해위경제규모、산업결구등사개효응,근거분해결과운용협정방법건립탄배방량여경제발전등사개변량적장기균형협정관계모형,기우협정방정채용몽특잡락동태모의방법모의료아국2020년탄배방정황。연구결과위：LMDI분해표명경제규모시아국탄배방증장적주도인소,기술진보대탄배방산생명현적부효응,산업결구여능원결구적영향상대유한;협정모형표명GDP、매탄소비비중、능원강도여탄배방정상관,제삼산업비중여탄배방부상관,부합경제의의;몽특잡락모의결과현시안조목전적발전방식2020년아국단위GDP이양화탄배방상교2005년하강약36%-39%,여아국제출적하강40%-45%감배승낙목표십분접근,단하강폭도병불이상,표명안조목전적발전로경、절능강모수평화능원이용기술,아국거리완성가본합근년회소학정적감배목표환유일정거리,위완성감배목표환수가대절능감배력도。최후문장종우화산업결구、제고능원효솔、우화능원결구、운용법률수단한제배방화가강절능감배선전등사방면제출대책건의,위아국완성＂십이오＂화2020년감배목표제공차감。
With the boom in China＇s economy,the issues related with environmental degradation arising from excessive consumption of energy and with the greenhouse effect incurred owing to soaring CO2 emissions have already drawn an extensive attention in the nation and even around the world. In 2007,China replaced the U. S and became the country that had emitted the largest volume of carbon in the world. As committed in the Copenhagen Climate Negotiation Conference,China＇s government declared to implement the carbonreduction plan,specifically decreasing CO2 emissions by 40- 45% each unit GDP till 2020,compared with that in 2005. Referring to the above-mentioned target and comparative analysis of terminal energy consumption in six economic sectors in China,this article applies LMDI decomposition model and decomposes the increment change of carbon emissions into four effects,represented by economy scale and industrial structure. In accordance with the decomposition result,a long-term co-integration equilibrium equation is built to clarify four variables such as carbon emission and economic growth,which is followed by a Monte-Carlo-based simulation for China＇s carbon emission in 2020. As shown from LMDI decomposition,with respect to impact on the increase in carbon emissions,the country＇s economy scale really dominates; technological progress influences negatively; and industrial structure and energy structure have limited effect. Besides,the co-integration model demonstrates that these three factors of GDP,the proportion of coal consumption,and energy intensity are positively related to carbon emissions,while the proportion of the tertiary industry is negatively related. In addition,as explained by the Monte-Carlo-based simulation result,it is estimated that carbon intensity will reduce by 36% to 39% till2020,very close to the target of a decline of 40% to 45% proposed previously but unsatisfactory actually. This result also implies the fact that there is a long way for China to achieve the target under the current conditions of development path,energy-saving level,and energy-using technologies. Therefore,further efforts are needed to strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction. In the end,suggestions are proposed to help accomplish carbon-reduction targets stated in the 12 th Five-Year Plan as well as in Copenhagen Conference,covering four areas of idealizing industrial structure,improving energy efficiency,optimizing energy structure,and limiting carbon emissions legally and strengthening propaganda for energy conservation and carbon reduction.