CAJ | 학술논문

电力碳排放占中国碳排放总量比重较大,因此研究电力碳排放的影响因素并制定针对性减排政策对中国节能减排有重要意义。基于我国1991-2012年电力相关数据,分析了电力碳排放的动态特征,发现电力消费及其碳排放与GDP同步变化,中国电力生产的能源转换效率在提高,电力碳排放主要来源于煤炭的使用;运用对数平均迪氏指数分解方法,不仅考虑电力生产过程,而且考虑电力输配环节和电力终端消费活动对碳排放的影响,从而把中国电力碳排放增长分解为排放因子、能源结构、电力结构、转换效率、输配损耗、经济规模、人口规模、产业结构、电力强度、生活消费等10个影响因素。分解结果表明,经济规模是促使电力碳排放增长的最大因素,意味着中国电力碳排放与经济社会发展密切相关;以工业为主的产业结构使得电力消费增加,驱动了电力碳排放增长;生活消费也是电力碳排放增加的重要影响因素;人口规模、输配损耗、能源结构、电力结构、排放因子等因素也是正向效应,但影响程度较小;产业部门电力强度下降和能源转换效率提高是抑制电力碳排放增长的最重要因素;电力结构也抑制了电力碳排放增长,但影响程度较小。基于以上结论,中国需要从电力生产、输配、消费等环节入手控制电力碳排放。
전력탄배방점중국탄배방총량비중교대,인차연구전력탄배방적영향인소병제정침대성감배정책대중국절능감배유중요의의。기우아국1991-2012년전력상관수거,분석료전력탄배방적동태특정,발현전력소비급기탄배방여GDP동보변화,중국전력생산적능원전환효솔재제고,전력탄배방주요래원우매탄적사용;운용대수평균적씨지수분해방법,불부고필전력생산과정,이차고필전력수배배절화전력종단소비활동대탄배방적영향,종이파중국전력탄배방증장분해위배방인자、능원결구、전력결구、전환효솔、수배손모、경제규모、인구규모、산업결구、전력강도、생활소비등10개영향인소。분해결과표명,경제규모시촉사전력탄배방증장적최대인소,의미착중국전력탄배방여경제사회발전밀절상관;이공업위주적산업결구사득전력소비증가,구동료전력탄배방증장;생활소비야시전력탄배방증가적중요영향인소;인구규모、수배손모、능원결구、전력결구、배방인자등인소야시정향효응,단영향정도교소;산업부문전력강도하강화능원전환효솔제고시억제전력탄배방증장적최중요인소;전력결구야억제료전력탄배방증장,단영향정도교소。기우이상결론,중국수요종전력생산、수배、소비등배절입수공제전력탄배방。
For Chinese energy saving and emission reduction,it is significant to study the factors influencing carbon emissions from electricity and put a targeted policy on emissions mitigation due to its large contribution to overall emissions. Based on electric data from 1991 to 2011,its characteristics are analyzed first. The results show that power consumption and its carbon emissions change synchronously with GDP,energy conversionefficiency is rising and emissions are mainly from the use of coal. Then using the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method,considering the factors from the production as well as loss and total final consumption,the evolution of CO2 emissions from electricity is decomposed into ten kinds of contribution factors,named the emission factor effect,fuel structure effect,energy conversion effect,loss effect,power structure effect,power intensity effect,industrial structure effect,economicdevelopment effect,household consumption effect and total population effect. The results are shown as follows. Economic development effect is the greatest one to drive emissions increasing,which means carbon emissions is closely related to economic development. The share of industry in GDP increased rapidly so that it drives the growth of carbon emissions. Household consumption effect is an important factor to increase emissions. Total population,fuel structure and emission factor are also positive effects but the effect is negligible. Power intensity effect and energy conversion effect are the main determinants of decreasing carbon emissions. Power structure effect inhibits the increasing of emissions. Based on these conclusions,policies are suggested from the points of electric production,loss and consumption.