CAJ | 학술논문

城市化是世界各国社会经济发展的重要特征,是一种强烈的地表人类活动过程,在促进经济和社会发展的同时给资源环境带来了一系列负面影响。城市化过程的直接表现是乡村人口进入城市,用人口城市化表征城市化水平。中日韩是亚洲和东北亚地区经济实力最强的三个核心国家。以中日韩三国为例,基于面板数据模型框架,对比分析1950-2012年三国城市化的发展阶段和过程,采用线性回归方法定量研究三国城市化进程与资源环境变化之间的相互关系。结果表明：中日韩三国城市化进程存在较大差异,城市化起点不同、发展速度不同、所处阶段不同。中国城市化起步分别比日韩晚80年、20年。中日韩三国城市化水平的发展趋势均呈快速增长,日韩两国在二战后城市化水平的增长速度均远超中国。目前日韩两国均已处于城市化后期,并已经成功跨越了中等收入陷阱,进入发达经济体,两国城市化率分别为91.73%,83.47%;而中国目前正处于城市化中期和跨越中等收入陷阱的关键阶段,城市化率为51.78%。中日韩三国城市化进程与资源环境变化有着密切关系。随着城市化水平的提高,城市化与土地资源、水资源呈显著负相关,与能源使用量呈显著正相关。中日韩三国城市化率每提高1%,人均耕地面积分别减少24 m2,10 m2,9 m2,人均水资源量分别减少64 m3,43 m3,21 m3,人均能源消费量分别增加42 kg,76 kg,111 kg。借鉴日韩经验,建议中国提高资源、能源利用效率,调整产业结构,加强环境监管,控制废弃物排放,建设生态城市,实现城市化快速发展、资源高效利用和生态环境保护共赢。
성시화시세계각국사회경제발전적중요특정,시일충강렬적지표인류활동과정,재촉진경제화사회발전적동시급자원배경대래료일계렬부면영향。성시화과정적직접표현시향촌인구진입성시,용인구성시화표정성시화수평。중일한시아주화동북아지구경제실력최강적삼개핵심국가。이중일한삼국위례,기우면판수거모형광가,대비분석1950-2012년삼국성시화적발전계단화과정,채용선성회귀방법정량연구삼국성시화진정여자원배경변화지간적상호관계。결과표명：중일한삼국성시화진정존재교대차이,성시화기점불동、발전속도불동、소처계단불동。중국성시화기보분별비일한만80년、20년。중일한삼국성시화수평적발전추세균정쾌속증장,일한량국재이전후성시화수평적증장속도균원초중국。목전일한량국균이처우성시화후기,병이경성공과월료중등수입함정,진입발체경제체,량국성시화솔분별위91.73%,83.47%;이중국목전정처우성시화중기화과월중등수입함정적관건계단,성시화솔위51.78%。중일한삼국성시화진정여자원배경변화유착밀절관계。수착성시화수평적제고,성시화여토지자원、수자원정현저부상관,여능원사용량정현저정상관。중일한삼국성시화솔매제고1%,인균경지면적분별감소24 m2,10 m2,9 m2,인균수자원량분별감소64 m3,43 m3,21 m3,인균능원소비량분별증가42 kg,76 kg,111 kg。차감일한경험,건의중국제고자원、능원이용효솔,조정산업결구,가강배경감관,공제폐기물배방,건설생태성시,실현성시화쾌속발전、자원고효이용화생태배경보호공영。
Urbanization,an important feature for social and economic development around the world,is an intense human activity at the earth＇s surface,and has brought a series of negative effects to resources and environment. Urbanization is a process in which the rural population moves into cities. Urban population rate was used to represent the level of urban development. China,Japan and Korea are the three important economics in Asia and Northeast Asia. Taking China,Japan and Korea as representative examples,their urbanization stage and process during 1950- 2012 were studied based on Panel Data Model Framework,and the relationship between their urbanization process and changes of resources and environment were quantitative studied by linear regression model. The results showed that there were great differences of urbanization process in the three countries,different start time,different speed,and different stage. The start time of China was 80 years and 20 years later than Japan and Korea respectively. Urbanization speed in both Japan and Korea grew more rapidly than that in China after the World War Ⅱ. Japan and Korea are now at the late of stage of urbanization and successfully crossed the middle-income trap into developed economies,with urbanization ratio of 91. 73% and83. 47% respectively. China is now at the middle stage of urbanization and the key stage of overcoming middle-income trap,with urbanization ratio of 51. 78%. But the urbanization process was closely related to the changes of resources and environment in all these three countries. With urbanization ratio increasing in China,Japan and Korea,land resources and water resources demonstrated significant-negative correlations with urbanization ratio. However,energy use expressed significant positive correlation with urbanization ratio. When urbanization rate increase by 1%,per capita arable land will decrease by 24 m2,10 m2,9 m2,per capita water resources will decrease 64 m3、43 m3、21 m3,and per capita energy consumption will increase 42 kg,76 kg and 111 kg respectively in the three countries. Learning from Japan and Korea,it was suggested that China should improve utilization efficiency of energy and resources,adjust the industrial structure,strengthen supervision of environment,control waste emissions,and build ecological city in order to achieve a win-win situation of urbanization development,resource utilization and ecological protection.