统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2015年
3期
12~20
,共null页
中央企业 宏观经济 合成指数 非线性Granger检验 MS-VAR模型
中央企業 宏觀經濟 閤成指數 非線性Granger檢驗 MS-VAR模型
중앙기업 굉관경제 합성지수 비선성Granger검험 MS-VAR모형
Central Enterprises; Macro Economy; Composite Index; Nonlinear Granger Test; MS-VAR Model
本文基于景气合成指数方法构建了中央企业与宏观经济的一致合成指数,在分析中央企业与宏观经济波动特征的基础上,研究了中央企业发展与宏观经济增长的内在关联。结论认为,总体而言,除中央企业改革年份之外,中央企业与宏观经济景气波动具有一致性。中央企业与宏观经济的线性和非线性Granger因果关系检验表明两者之间存在双向影响关系。马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归（MS-VAR）模型中脉冲响应函数的分析结果显示,中央企业对宏观经济具有先增强后减弱的正向冲击效应。通过＂全产业链＂循环和协同发展机制,中央企业对其自身发展的促进作用明显大于对宏观经济的促进。
本文基于景氣閤成指數方法構建瞭中央企業與宏觀經濟的一緻閤成指數,在分析中央企業與宏觀經濟波動特徵的基礎上,研究瞭中央企業髮展與宏觀經濟增長的內在關聯。結論認為,總體而言,除中央企業改革年份之外,中央企業與宏觀經濟景氣波動具有一緻性。中央企業與宏觀經濟的線性和非線性Granger因果關繫檢驗錶明兩者之間存在雙嚮影響關繫。馬爾科伕區製轉移嚮量自迴歸（MS-VAR）模型中脈遲響應函數的分析結果顯示,中央企業對宏觀經濟具有先增彊後減弱的正嚮遲擊效應。通過＂全產業鏈＂循環和協同髮展機製,中央企業對其自身髮展的促進作用明顯大于對宏觀經濟的促進。
본문기우경기합성지수방법구건료중앙기업여굉관경제적일치합성지수,재분석중앙기업여굉관경제파동특정적기출상,연구료중앙기업발전여굉관경제증장적내재관련。결론인위,총체이언,제중앙기업개혁년빈지외,중앙기업여굉관경제경기파동구유일치성。중앙기업여굉관경제적선성화비선성Granger인과관계검험표명량자지간존재쌍향영향관계。마이과부구제전이향량자회귀（MS-VAR）모형중맥충향응함수적분석결과현시,중앙기업대굉관경제구유선증강후감약적정향충격효응。통과＂전산업련＂순배화협동발전궤제,중앙기업대기자신발전적촉진작용명현대우대굉관경제적촉진。
Based on business cycle composite index method,this paper constructed the consistent composite indexes of central enterprises and macro economy respectively. Then intrinsic relations between central enterprises and macro economy were analyzed on the basis of examining their fluctuation characteristics. The results showed that the operating of central enterprises took on typical counter-cyclical features before 2008. The development of central enterprises was ahead of macro economy volatility obviously in the period from 2009 to 2013. The findings of linear and nonlinear Granger causality test indicate that there are bidirectional influences between central enterprises and macro economy. The study of impulse response function in the MS-VAR model reveals that the positive impact of central enterprises on macro economy are strengthening firstly and then weakening. Compared to macro economy,the central enterprises have more significant effects on themselves through whole industrial chain circulation and the mechanism of collaborative development.
